Vancouver-Quilchena
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Vancouver-Quilchena will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 95% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 98% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | OneBC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver-Quilchena | 46.6% | 27.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%−0.5 | 40.3%−12.3 | 1.3%+11.1 | 10.3%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Dallas Brodie · OneBC
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 12.7 points, with 58.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 18.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Brodie Elected | Con | — | 51.6 |
| Callista Ryan | NDP | — | 38.9 |
| Michael Barkusky | GP | — | 7.8 |
| Caroline Ying-Mei Wang | OTH | — | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver-South Granville NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-Point Grey NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-Langara Con, safe seat
- Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-West End NDP, safe seat
- Richmond Centre Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated