Richmond Centre
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Richmond Centre will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Centre | 60.0% | 32.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+12.9 | 40.3%−7.7 | 10.3%−5.6 | 0.4%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon Chan · IND
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 15.2 points, with 49.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 27.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hon Chan Elected | Con | — | 52.0 |
| Henry Yao | NDP | — | 36.8 |
| Dickens Cheung Sunny Ho Wendy Yuan | OTH | — | 11.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver-Langara Con, safe seat
- Richmond-Steveston Con, toss-up
- Delta South Con, safe seat
- Vancouver-Quilchena Con, safe seat
- Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP, safe seat
- Vancouver-Fraserview NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated