Cariboo-Chilcotin

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 43.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Cariboo-Chilcotin will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 70.1%
NDP 26.3%
GP 3.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	> 99%
50/50 blend	Con	> 99%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP
Cariboo-Chilcotin	70.1%	26.3%	3.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+23.0	40.3%−14.0	10.3%−6.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Lorne Doerkson · Con

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 39.2 points, with 60.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 43.8 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Lorne Doerkson Elected	Con	—	69.6
Michael Moses	NDP	—	30.4

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Prince George-North Cariboo Con, safe seat
Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP, safe seat
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GP, toss-up
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP, toss-up
Fraser-Nicola Con, safe seat
North Vancouver-Seymour NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026