Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Live results

Results for Powell River-Sunshine Coast will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 46.1%
Con 36.5%
GP 17.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 68% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	68%
50/50 blend	NDP	84%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	46.1%	36.5%	17.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+5.8	47.0%−10.6	10.3%+7.1

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Randene Neill · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 13.9 points, with 66.4% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 9.6 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Randene Neill Elected	NDP	—	49.6
Chris Moore	Con	—	35.7
Chris Hergesheimer	GP	—	13.5
Greg Reid	OTH	—	1.2

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Courtenay-Comox Con, safe seat
Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
Cariboo-Chilcotin Con, safe seat
Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP, toss-up
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GP, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026