Mid Island-Pacific Rim

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.

Live results

Results for Mid Island-Pacific Rim will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 43.0%
Con 41.2%
GP 15.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 54% chance (81% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	81%
Orbit	NDP	54%
50/50 blend	NDP	68%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
Mid Island-Pacific Rim	43.0%	41.2%	15.8%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+2.7	47.0%−5.9	10.3%+5.5

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Josie Osborne · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 9.3 points, with 60.4% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 2.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Josie Osborne Elected	NDP	—	48.7
Adam Hayduk	Con	—	39.5
Ross Reid	GP	—	11.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Courtenay-Comox Con, safe seat
Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
Cowichan Valley Con, toss-up
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP, safe seat
Juan de Fuca-Malahat Con, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026