Nanaimo-Gabriola Island

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Nanaimo-Gabriola Island will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 47.1%
Con 36.3%
GP 16.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 77% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	77%
50/50 blend	NDP	89%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island	47.1%	36.3%	16.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+6.8	47.0%−10.8	10.3%+6.4

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Sheila Malcolmson · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 18.1 points, with 60.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 10.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Sheila Malcolmson Elected	NDP	—	52.8
Dale Parker	Con	—	34.7
Shirley Lambrecht	GP	—	12.6

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
Cowichan Valley Con, toss-up
Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
Juan de Fuca-Malahat Con, competitive
Richmond-Bridgeport Con, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026