Cowichan Valley
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 58%.
Results for Cowichan Valley will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 61% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 61% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 80% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowichan Valley | 39.5% | 34.9% | 24.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%−7.6 | 40.3%−5.4 | 10.3%+13.8 | 0.4%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Debra Toporowski · NDP
Previous election (2024)
The NDP won by 2.9 points, with 63.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debra Toporowski Elected | NDP | — | 40.5 |
| John Koury | Con | — | 37.6 |
| Cammy Lockwood | GP | — | 19.8 |
| Eden Haythornthwaite | OTH | — | — |
| Jon Coleman | OTH | — | — |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP, safe seat
- Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
- Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat Con, competitive
- Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat
- Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated