Ladysmith-Oceanside

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 90%.

Live results

Results for Ladysmith-Oceanside will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 44.5%
NDP 42.7%
GP 12.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 54% chance (77% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	77%
Orbit	Con	54%
50/50 blend	Con	65%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP
Ladysmith-Oceanside	44.5%	42.7%	12.8%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%−2.5	40.3%+2.4	10.3%+2.5

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Stephanie Higginson · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 6.0 points, with 69.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.5 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Stephanie Higginson Elected	NDP	—	41.5
Brett Fee	Con	—	35.5
Adam Walker	OTH	—	16.3
Laura Ferreira	GP	—	6.7

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
Cowichan Valley Con, toss-up
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP, safe seat
Juan de Fuca-Malahat Con, competitive
Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP, toss-up
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026