Juan de Fuca-Malahat

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.

Live results

Results for Juan de Fuca-Malahat will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 38.4%
NDP 32.5%
GP 27.0%
OneBC 2.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 63% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	63%
50/50 blend	Con	81%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	OneBC
Juan de Fuca-Malahat	38.4%	32.5%	27.0%	2.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%−8.6	40.3%−7.8	10.3%+16.7	1.3%+0.8

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Dana Lajeunesse · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 0.6 points, with 64.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 5.9 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Dana Lajeunesse Elected	NDP	—	38.8
Marina Sapozhnikov	Con	—	38.2
David Evans	GP	—	23.0

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Cowichan Valley Con, toss-up
Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Esquimalt-Colwood NDP, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat
Saanich South NDP, safe seat
Victoria-Swan Lake NDP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026