Saanich South

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Live results

Results for Saanich South will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 44.1%
Con 34.1%
GP 21.9%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 75% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	75%
50/50 blend	NDP	88%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
Saanich South	44.1%	34.1%	21.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+3.8	47.0%−13.0	10.3%+11.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Lana Popham · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 17.3 points, with 67.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 10.0 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Lana Popham Elected	NDP	—	49.8
Adam Kubel	Con	—	32.5
Ned Taylor	GP	—	17.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Esquimalt-Colwood NDP, safe seat
Victoria-Swan Lake NDP, safe seat
Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP, toss-up
Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026