Esquimalt-Colwood

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Esquimalt-Colwood will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 45.5%
Con 30.1%
GP 23.3%
CentreBC 1.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 85% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	85%
50/50 blend	NDP	92%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP	CentreBC
Esquimalt-Colwood	45.5%	30.1%	23.3%	1.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+5.2	47.0%−16.9	10.3%+13.1	0.7%+0.3

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Darlene Rotchford · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 22.3 points, with 63.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 15.4 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Darlene Rotchford Elected	NDP	—	51.5
John Wilson	Con	—	29.2
Camille Currie	GP	—	19.3

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Saanich South NDP, safe seat
Victoria-Swan Lake NDP, safe seat
Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP, toss-up
Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026