Victoria-Swan Lake

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Victoria-Swan Lake will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 50.9%
GP 27.6%
Con 21.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	94%
50/50 blend	NDP	97%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	GP	Con
Victoria-Swan Lake	50.9%	27.6%	21.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+10.7	10.3%+17.4	47.0%−25.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Nina Krieger · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 32.9 points, with 62.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 23.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Nina Krieger Elected	NDP	—	56.0
Christina Winter	GP	—	23.2
Tim Taylor	Con	—	20.2
Robert Crooks	OTH	—	0.6

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP, toss-up
Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP, safe seat
Saanich South NDP, safe seat
Esquimalt-Colwood NDP, safe seat
Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026