Victoria-Beacon Hill

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 76%.

Live results

Results for Victoria-Beacon Hill will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 41.8%
GP 38.0%
Con 20.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 52% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	99%
Orbit	NDP	52%
50/50 blend	NDP	75%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	GP	Con
Victoria-Beacon Hill	41.8%	38.0%	20.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+1.5	10.3%+27.7	47.0%−26.8

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Grace Lore · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 13.9 points, with 65.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 3.8 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Grace Lore Elected	NDP	—	47.4
Sonia Furstenau	GP	—	33.5
Tim Thielmann	Con	—	19.2

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Victoria-Swan Lake NDP, safe seat
Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP, safe seat
Esquimalt-Colwood NDP, safe seat
Saanich South NDP, safe seat
Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026