Saanich North and the Islands
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Saanich North and the Islands will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the GP, with a 78% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | GP | > 99% |
| Orbit | GP | 78% |
| 50/50 blend | GP | 89% |
Compared with the average
| GP | Con | NDP | CentreBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saanich North and the Islands | 41.1% | 31.3% | 26.5% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 10.3%+30.8 | 47.0%−15.8 | 40.3%−13.8 | 0.7%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Rob Botterell · GP
Previous election (2024)
The Green Party won by 4.0 points, with 69.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 9.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Botterell Elected | GP | — | 36.2 |
| Sarah Riddell | NDP | — | 32.2 |
| David Busch | Con | — | 29.8 |
| Amy Haysom | OTH | — | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saanich South NDP, safe seat
- Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
- Esquimalt-Colwood NDP, safe seat
- Victoria-Swan Lake NDP, safe seat
- Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP, safe seat
- Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated