Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Oak Bay-Gordon Head will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 43.0%
Con 29.7%
GP 26.0%
CentreBC 1.3%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 78% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	78%
50/50 blend	NDP	89%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP	CentreBC
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	43.0%	29.7%	26.0%	1.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+2.7	47.0%−17.3	10.3%+15.7	0.7%+0.5

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Diana Gibson · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 20.2 points, with 69.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 13.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Diana Gibson Elected	NDP	—	49.1
Stephen Andrew	Con	—	28.9
Lisa Gunderson	GP	—	22.0

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Victoria-Swan Lake NDP, safe seat
Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP, toss-up
Saanich South NDP, safe seat
Esquimalt-Colwood NDP, safe seat
Langford-Highlands NDP, safe seat
Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026