Nanaimo-Lantzville
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 56%.
Results for Nanaimo-Lantzville will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 62% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | NDP | 99% |
| Orbit | NDP | 62% |
| 50/50 blend | NDP | 80% |
Compared with the average
| NDP | Con | GP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanaimo-Lantzville | 46.0% | 41.3% | 12.7% | 0.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 40.3%+5.7 | 47.0%−5.8 | 10.3%+2.4 | 0.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
George Anderson · NDP
Previous election (2024)
The NDP won by 12.2 points, with 66.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Anderson Elected | NDP | — | 51.8 |
| Gwen O'Mahony | Con | — | 39.5 |
| Lia Versaevel | GP | — | 8.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP, safe seat
- Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
- Cowichan Valley Con, toss-up
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat Con, competitive
- Richmond-Bridgeport Con, safe seat
- Saanich North and the Islands GP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated