Courtenay-Comox
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
Results for Courtenay-Comox will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 68% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 68% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 84% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | CentreBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtenay-Comox | 40.6% | 32.9% | 25.1% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%−6.5 | 40.3%−7.4 | 10.3%+14.8 | 0.7%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Brennan Day · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 0.3 points, with 68.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 7.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Day Elected | Con | — | 38.8 |
| Ronna-Rae Leonard | NDP | — | 38.6 |
| Arzeena Hamir | GP | — | 20.7 |
| Devin Howell | OTH | — | — |
| John Hedican | OTH | — | — |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP, toss-up
- Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
- Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP, safe seat
- Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
- Cowichan Valley Con, toss-up
- Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated