Fraser-Nicola

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Fraser-Nicola will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 54.9%
NDP 32.2%
GP 12.9%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	97%
50/50 blend	Con	98%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP
Fraser-Nicola	54.9%	32.2%	12.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+7.9	40.3%−8.1	10.3%+2.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Tony Luck · Con

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 17.9 points, with 56.7% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 22.7 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Tony Luck Elected	Con	—	54.3
Francyne Joe	NDP	—	36.4
Jonah Timms	GP	—	9.3

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP, toss-up
Chilliwack North Con, safe seat
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake Con, safe seat
Maple Ridge East Con, safe seat
Abbotsford-Mission Con, safe seat
Abbotsford South Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026