Abbotsford-Mission

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Fraser Valley

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Abbotsford-Mission will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 53.6%
NDP 41.3%
OneBC 3.6%
CentreBC 1.5%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 89% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	89%
50/50 blend	Con	95%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	OneBC	CentreBC
Abbotsford-Mission	53.6%	41.3%	3.6%	1.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+6.6	40.3%+1.0	1.3%+2.3	0.7%+0.8

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 10.8 points, with 57.4% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 12.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Reann Gasper Elected	Con	—	55.4
Pam Alexis	NDP	—	44.6

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Abbotsford West Con, safe seat
Abbotsford South Con, safe seat
Maple Ridge East Con, safe seat
Langley-Abbotsford Con, safe seat
Chilliwack North Con, safe seat
Langley-Walnut Grove Con, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026