Abbotsford West
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Fraser Valley
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Abbotsford West will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 98% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | CentreBC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford West | 62.2% | 35.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+15.1 | 40.3%−4.4 | 0.7%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Korky Neufeld · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 21.5 points, with 52.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 26.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korky Neufeld Elected | Con | — | 58.4 |
| Graeme Hutchison | NDP | — | 36.9 |
| James Davison | OTH | — | 4.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Abbotsford-Mission Con, safe seat
- Abbotsford South Con, safe seat
- Maple Ridge East Con, safe seat
- Langley-Abbotsford Con, safe seat
- Langley-Walnut Grove Con, safe seat
- Langley-Willowbrook Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated