Abbotsford South
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Fraser Valley
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Abbotsford South will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford South | 62.7% | 33.4% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+15.7 | 40.3%−6.9 | 1.3%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Bruce Banman · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 26.4 points, with 51.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 29.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Banman Elected | Con | — | 61.6 |
| Sarah Kooner | NDP | — | 35.2 |
| Amandeep Singh | OTH | — | 3.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Abbotsford-Mission Con, safe seat
- Abbotsford West Con, safe seat
- Chilliwack North Con, safe seat
- Maple Ridge East Con, safe seat
- Langley-Abbotsford Con, safe seat
- Langley-Walnut Grove Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated