Boundary-Similkameen

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.

Live results

Results for Boundary-Similkameen will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 51.3%
NDP 45.2%
OneBC 3.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 84% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	84%
50/50 blend	Con	92%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	OneBC
Boundary-Similkameen	51.3%	45.2%	3.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+4.2	40.3%+4.9	1.3%+2.3

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Donegal Wilson · Con

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 5.8 points, with 62.7% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 6.1 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Donegal Wilson Elected	Con	—	48.4
Roly Russell	NDP	—	42.6
Kevin Eastwood	GP	—	5.9
Sean Taylor	OTH	—	3.2

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Penticton-Summerland Con, toss-up
West Kelowna-Peachland Con, safe seat
Kelowna Centre Con, toss-up
Kelowna-Mission Con, safe seat
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Con, safe seat
Vernon-Lumby Con, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026