Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream | 55.5% | 32.5% | 8.4% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+8.4 | 40.3%−7.8 | 10.3%−1.8 | 1.3%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Tara Armstrong · IND
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 18.7 points, with 58.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 23.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tara Armstrong Elected | Con | — | 53.9 |
| Anna Warwick Sears | NDP | — | 35.3 |
| Kevin Kraft | OTH | — | 6.5 |
| Andrew Rose | GP | — | 4.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vernon-Lumby Con, toss-up
- Kelowna Centre Con, toss-up
- Kelowna-Mission Con, safe seat
- West Kelowna-Peachland Con, safe seat
- Penticton-Summerland Con, toss-up
- Boundary-Similkameen Con, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated