Penticton-Summerland
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 49%.
Results for Penticton-Summerland will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 74% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 74% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 87% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penticton-Summerland | 45.8% | 40.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%−1.3 | 40.3%+0.4 | 10.3%−0.1 | 1.3%+2.1 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Amelia Boultbee · NDP
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 1.1 points, with 61.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 5.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amelia Boultbee Elected | Con | — | 41.4 |
| Tina Lee | NDP | — | 40.2 |
| Bradley Bartsch | GP | — | 5.2 |
| Anna Paddon | OTH | — | — |
| Roger Harrington | OTH | — | — |
| Tracy St Claire | OTH | — | — |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Boundary-Similkameen Con, competitive
- Kelowna-Mission Con, safe seat
- Kelowna Centre Con, toss-up
- West Kelowna-Peachland Con, safe seat
- Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Con, safe seat
- Vernon-Lumby Con, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated