Kelowna-Mission

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for Kelowna-Mission will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 55.6%
NDP 31.2%
GP 9.5%
OneBC 3.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 98% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	> 99%
Orbit	Con	98%
50/50 blend	Con	99%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	OneBC
Kelowna-Mission	55.6%	31.2%	9.5%	3.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%+8.5	40.3%−9.1	10.3%−0.8	1.3%+2.5

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Gavin Dew · Con

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The Conservatives won by 18.9 points, with 60.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 24.4 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Gavin Dew Elected	Con	—	51.5
Harpreet Badohal	NDP	—	32.6
Ashley Ramsay	OTH	—	11.0
Billy Young	GP	—	4.9

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Kelowna Centre Con, toss-up
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Con, safe seat
Penticton-Summerland Con, toss-up
Vernon-Lumby Con, toss-up
West Kelowna-Peachland Con, safe seat
Boundary-Similkameen Con, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026