Vernon-Lumby

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.

Live results

Results for Vernon-Lumby will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Con 46.9%
NDP 45.2%
GP 4.4%
OneBC 3.5%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 67% chance (79% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Con	79%
Orbit	Con	67%
50/50 blend	Con	73%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Con	NDP	GP	OneBC
Vernon-Lumby	46.9%	45.2%	4.4%	3.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	47.0%−0.1	40.3%+4.9	10.3%−5.9	1.3%+2.3

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Harwinder Sandhu · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 1.7 points, with 60.7% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Harwinder Sandhu Elected	NDP	—	42.7
Dennis Giesbrecht	Con	—	41.0
Kevin Acton	OTH	—	—
Robert Johnson	OTH	—	—

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Con, safe seat
Kelowna Centre Con, toss-up
Kelowna-Mission Con, safe seat
West Kelowna-Peachland Con, safe seat
Salmon Arm-Shuswap Con, safe seat
Penticton-Summerland Con, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026