Salmon Arm-Shuswap
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Interior
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Salmon Arm-Shuswap will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salmon Arm-Shuswap | 54.5% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+7.5 | 40.3%−12.3 | 10.3%+1.3 | 1.3%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
David Williams · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 21.7 points, with 61.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 26.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David L. Williams Elected | Con | — | 52.1 |
| Sylvia Lindgren | NDP | — | 30.4 |
| Jed Wiebe | GP | — | 7.1 |
| Greg McCune | OTH | — | — |
| Sherry Roy | OTH | — | — |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vernon-Lumby Con, toss-up
- Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Con, safe seat
- Kamloops-North Thompson Con, safe seat
- Kelowna Centre Con, toss-up
- Kelowna-Mission Con, safe seat
- West Kelowna-Peachland Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated