North Island
Provincial riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island & Coast
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Results for North Island will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a 77% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | 77% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | 88% |
Compared with the average
| Con | NDP | GP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Island | 48.9% | 39.1% | 11.9% | 0.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+1.9 | 40.3%−1.2 | 10.3%+1.6 | 0.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Anna Kindy · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.1 points, with 62.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Kindy Elected | Con | — | 47.1 |
| Michele Babchuk | NDP | — | 44.9 |
| Nic Dedeluk | GP | — | 8.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Courtenay-Comox Con, safe seat
- Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP, safe seat
- Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP, toss-up
- North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP, safe seat
- Ladysmith-Oceanside Con, toss-up
- Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated