North Coast-Haida Gwaii

Provincial riding · British Columbia · North

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Live results

Results for North Coast-Haida Gwaii will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 60.8%
Con 35.5%
GP 3.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 92% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	> 99%
Orbit	NDP	92%
50/50 blend	NDP	96%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP
North Coast-Haida Gwaii	60.8%	35.5%	3.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+20.5	47.0%−11.6	10.3%−6.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Tamara Davidson · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 29.8 points, with 48.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 25.3 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Tamara Davidson Elected	NDP	—	64.9
Christopher Jason Sankey	Con	—	35.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Skeena Con, safe seat
North Island Con, safe seat
Nechako Lakes Con, safe seat
Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP, safe seat
Courtenay-Comox Con, safe seat
Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026