Burnaby East

Provincial riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.

Live results

Results for Burnaby East will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.

All British Columbia results

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 44.5%
Con 41.7%
GP 11.9%
OneBC 1.9%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the NDP, with a 60% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	NDP	92%
Orbit	NDP	60%
50/50 blend	NDP	76%

Figures as of October 23, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	NDP	Con	GP	OneBC
Burnaby East	44.5%	41.7%	11.9%	1.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	40.3%+4.2	47.0%−5.3	10.3%+1.6	1.3%+0.6

Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Current member

Reah Arora · NDP

43rd Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

The NDP won by 11.3 points, with 55.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 3.0 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Rohini Arora Elected	NDP	—	51.9
Simon Chandler	Con	—	40.5
Tara Shushtarian	GP	—	7.6

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Burnaby Centre NDP, toss-up
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP, safe seat
Burnaby North NDP, toss-up
New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP, safe seat
Burnaby South-Metrotown Con, toss-up
Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 24, 2026