Peace River North
Provincial riding · British Columbia · North
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 61.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Peace River North will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | OTH | |
|---|---|---|
| Peace River North | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+33.6 | 0.4%+18.9 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jordan Kealy · IND
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 68.9 points, with 57.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 61.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kealy Elected | Con | — | 74.4 |
| Dan Davies | OTH | — | 20.2 |
| Ian McMahon | NDP | — | 5.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bulkley Valley-Stikine Con, safe seat
- Nechako Lakes Con, safe seat
- Prince George-Mackenzie Con, safe seat
- Skeena Con, safe seat
- Peace River South Con, safe seat
- North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated