Peace River South
Provincial riding · British Columbia · North
Election day October 24, 2026 · forecast of October 24, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 85.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Results for Peace River South will appear here when polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24.
All British Columbia resultsWhat Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Con, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Con | > 99% |
| Orbit | Con | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Con | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Con | OneBC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peace River South | 91.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.0%+43.9 | 1.3%+4.1 | 40.3%−36.6 |
Simple average of the 93 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Larry Neufeld · Con
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 64.2 points, with 56.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 85.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Neufeld Elected | Con | — | 69.8 |
| Mike Bernier | OTH | — | 24.6 |
| Marshall Bigsby | NDP | — | 5.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Prince George-Mackenzie Con, safe seat
- Prince George-North Cariboo Con, safe seat
- Prince George-Valemount Con, safe seat
- Cariboo-Chilcotin Con, safe seat
- Kamloops-North Thompson Con, safe seat
- Nechako Lakes Con, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated