Quebec Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-07-17
The PQ is first. A majority is another election.
69 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Current National Assembly Composition
Seats — 127 total
- CAQ 79
- Quebec Liberals 18
- Quebec Solidaire 11
- Independent 9
- Parti Quebecois 7
- Conservatives of Quebec 1
Seat projection
Parti Quebecois ▼ -0.8 - Vote
- 29.7%
- P(majority)
- 17%
- P(largest)
- 97%
Quebec Liberals ▲ +1.6 - Vote
- 26.4%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 4%
CAQ ▬ -0.0 - Vote
- 20.7%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Conservatives of Quebec ▲ +0.7 - Vote
- 13.2%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Quebec Solidaire ▼ -2.7 - Vote
- 8.2%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
The race question
Is Quebec heading toward alternation—or a deeper reshaping of its party system?
The PQ wins the most seats in 96.6% of simulations—but a majority only 17.1% of the time. Polymarket is far cooler at 57.5% for most seats.
How we got here
How we got here
Quebec elections reward geographically efficient coalitions. A party can gain votes without gaining proportional representation, while a concentrated surge can redraw the map quickly.
The page therefore joins polling, seat simulations and the political sequence that produced them.
What just changed
What just changed
17 JUL 2026
Liberals up. QS down. The PQ still owns the map.
Over seven days the PLQ gains 1.57 points, QS loses 2.68 and the PQ slips 0.78. The new engine run projects 60 PQ, 41 Liberal, 15 CAQ, 8 Conservative and 3 QS seats.
Our read: Fresh Quebec engine run published today.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- Whether francophone movement consolidates behind one alternative.
- Regional breakthroughs outside the parties’ existing bases.
- Leader evaluations and the campaign’s dominant ballot question.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 127 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matane-Matapédia | QC | Parti Quebecois | 84.3% | 76.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Jacques-Cartier | QC | Quebec Liberals | 70.8% | 59.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | QC | Quebec Liberals | 70.3% | 58.9% | 100% | Hold |
| LaFontaine | QC | Quebec Liberals | 71.5% | 58.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | QC | Parti Quebecois | 71.4% | 58.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Marquette | QC | Quebec Liberals | 67.4% | 57.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | QC | Quebec Liberals | 65.0% | 54.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Pontiac | QC | Quebec Liberals | 64.1% | 51.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Nelligan | QC | Quebec Liberals | 66.3% | 51.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | QC | Quebec Liberals | 65.0% | 51.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Robert-Baldwin | QC | Quebec Liberals | 65.9% | 50.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Gaspé | QC | Parti Quebecois | 65.0% | 50.3% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Saint-Laurent | QC | Quebec Liberals | 62.3% | 48.6% | 100% | Hold |
| La Pinière | QC | Quebec Liberals | 63.0% | 48.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Rimouski | QC | Parti Quebecois | 65.9% | 48.0% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | QC | Quebec Liberals | 60.0% | 46.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Vimont-Auteuil | QC | Quebec Liberals | 64.0% | 46.4% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Acadie | QC | Quebec Liberals | 59.0% | 46.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Fabre | QC | Quebec Liberals | 61.1% | 46.4% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Mille-Îles | QC | Quebec Liberals | 61.4% | 43.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Bonaventure | QC | Parti Quebecois | 60.0% | 43.2% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Vaudreuil | QC | Quebec Liberals | 58.8% | 43.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | QC | Quebec Liberals | 58.8% | 42.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Chomedey | QC | Quebec Liberals | 60.2% | 40.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | QC | Quebec Liberals | 55.4% | 40.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Anjou-Louis-Riel | QC | Quebec Liberals | 62.0% | 38.7% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Laval-des-Rapides | QC | Quebec Liberals | 58.5% | 38.5% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| D'Arcy-McGee | QC | Quebec Liberals | 58.6% | 38.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | QC | Quebec Liberals | 56.0% | 36.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Viau | QC | Quebec Liberals | 56.7% | 35.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Duplessis | QC | Parti Quebecois | 52.4% | 35.2% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Sainte-Rose | QC | Quebec Liberals | 58.0% | 32.8% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Verdun | QC | Quebec Liberals | 53.5% | 31.1% | 100% | Quebec Solidaire → Quebec Liberals |
| Abitibi-Ouest | QC | Parti Quebecois | 53.1% | 30.9% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Joliette | QC | Parti Quebecois | 54.1% | 30.2% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Hull | QC | Quebec Liberals | 48.2% | 28.9% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Gatineau | QC | Quebec Liberals | 47.5% | 28.6% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | QC | Parti Quebecois | 53.1% | 27.8% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | QC | Parti Quebecois | 51.5% | 25.6% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Marie-Victorin | QC | Parti Quebecois | 46.3% | 25.6% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Châteauguay | QC | Quebec Liberals | 47.2% | 24.1% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Soulanges | QC | Quebec Liberals | 44.8% | 23.4% | 100% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Beauce-Sud | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 51.4% | 21.7% | 100% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Beauce-Nord | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 50.6% | 21.6% | 100% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Pierre-Laporte | QC | Quebec Liberals | 44.5% | 20.5% | 99% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Bellechasse | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 47.2% | 20.3% | 100% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Chicoutimi | QC | Parti Quebecois | 46.6% | 20.1% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| René-Lévesque | QC | Parti Quebecois | 50.4% | 18.9% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Bertrand | QC | Parti Quebecois | 44.2% | 18.5% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Taillon | QC | Parti Quebecois | 41.3% | 17.1% | 99% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |