Quebec Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-09-16
Parti Quebecois lead the seat count. A majority is another election.
83 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
Current National Assembly Composition
Seats — 127 total
- CAQ 79
- Quebec Liberals 18
- Quebec Solidaire 11
- Independent 9
- Parti Quebecois 7
- Conservatives of Quebec 1
Seat projection
Parti Quebecois ▼ -0.9 - Vote
- 27.4%
- P(majority)
- 15%
- P(largest)
- 96%
Quebec Liberals ▲ +1.2 - Vote
- 22.8%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 3%
CAQ ▼ -0.8 - Vote
- 22.7%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 2%
Conservatives of Quebec ▲ +0.7 - Vote
- 16.0%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Quebec Solidaire ▼ -0.6 - Vote
- 9.5%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 127 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | QC | CAQ | 29.6% | 0.8% | 60% | Hold |
| Maskinongé | QC | CAQ | 29.9% | 1.0% | 80% | Hold |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.5% | 1.1% | 86% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Charlesbourg | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 26.9% | 1.4% | 61% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Mégantic | QC | Parti Quebecois | 27.3% | 1.7% | 78% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 31.5% | 1.7% | 91% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Brome-Missisquoi | QC | CAQ | 27.4% | 1.8% | 77% | Hold |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | QC | CAQ | 27.7% | 1.8% | 73% | Hold |
| Ungava | QC | Parti Quebecois | 27.8% | 1.8% | 69% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Chapleau | QC | CAQ | 27.7% | 2.2% | 84% | Hold |
| Maurice-Richard | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.7% | 2.3% | 86% | Quebec Solidaire → Parti Quebecois |
| Abitibi-Est | QC | Parti Quebecois | 28.0% | 3.1% | 95% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Sherbrooke | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.5% | 3.2% | 87% | Quebec Solidaire → Parti Quebecois |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques | QC | Quebec Solidaire | 34.7% | 3.3% | 99% | Hold |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.2% | 3.8% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Blainville | QC | Parti Quebecois | 29.4% | 3.8% | 50% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Louis-Hébert | QC | Parti Quebecois | 28.9% | 3.9% | 99% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Vachon | QC | CAQ | 27.6% | 4.0% | 48% | Hold |
| Iberville | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.8% | 4.0% | 50% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.9% | 4.2% | 60% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | QC | CAQ | 31.2% | 4.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Groulx | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.3% | 4.2% | 64% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Sanguinet | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.9% | 4.3% | 65% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Repentigny | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.3% | 4.3% | 66% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Lévis | QC | CAQ | 29.9% | 4.3% | 53% | Hold |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QC | Quebec Solidaire | 38.9% | 4.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Jean-Lesage | QC | Quebec Solidaire | 26.8% | 4.3% | 62% | Hold |
| Huntingdon | QC | CAQ | 28.0% | 4.5% | 62% | Hold |
| Mirabel | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.9% | 4.5% | 70% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Bellefeuille | QC | CAQ | 31.0% | 4.6% | 71% | Hold |
| Les Plaines | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.6% | 4.7% | 73% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Côte-du-Sud | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 29.2% | 4.7% | 55% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Trois-Rivières | QC | CAQ | 32.5% | 4.8% | 74% | Hold |
| Masson | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.5% | 4.9% | 75% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.6% | 4.9% | 73% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Saint-François | QC | Parti Quebecois | 28.0% | 5.0% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Papineau | QC | CAQ | 28.4% | 5.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Richmond | QC | Parti Quebecois | 29.8% | 5.1% | 100% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Chauveau | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 33.2% | 5.2% | 63% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques | QC | CAQ | 34.0% | 5.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 33.1% | 5.4% | 70% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Deux-Montagnes | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.1% | 5.5% | 81% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Chambly | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.6% | 5.8% | 84% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Orford | QC | Quebec Liberals | 30.7% | 5.9% | 79% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Montmorency | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 32.7% | 6.2% | 100% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Beauharnois | QC | Parti Quebecois | 34.0% | 6.2% | 86% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Champlain | QC | CAQ | 32.2% | 6.4% | 100% | Hold |
| L'Assomption | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.5% | 6.6% | 65% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Montarville | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.8% | 6.6% | 88% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Rousseau | QC | Parti Quebecois | 34.0% | 6.8% | 90% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
The race question
Is Quebec heading toward alternation—or a deeper reshaping of its party system?
The leader is only half the story. Territorial efficiency, regional concentration and the francophone vote decide how much momentum turns into seats—a party can win votes without winning proportional representation.
How we got here
How we got here
Quebec elections reward geographically efficient coalitions. A party can gain votes without gaining proportional representation, while a concentrated surge can redraw the map quickly.
The page therefore joins polling, seat simulations and the political sequence that produced them.
What just changed
What just changed
LATEST REVIEW
What actually changed?
We compare the new seat distribution with the previous one to separate a broad swing, a regional shift and statistical noise—a concentrated move can redraw the map faster than the vote share suggests. The live tables above show the current run.
Our read: Watch item — not automatically treated as a model input.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- Whether francophone movement consolidates behind one alternative.
- Regional breakthroughs outside the parties’ existing bases.
- Leader evaluations and the campaign’s dominant ballot question.