Riding profile

Lévis

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Lévis: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
53%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
65%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 29.9%

    Bernard Drainville incumbent

  • PCQ 27.1%

    Karine Laflamme

  • PQ 24.1%

    Yanick Godbout

  • QLP 11.7%

    Brittany Blais

  • QS 6.7%

    Simon Beauchamp-Léveillé

  • Other 0.6%

    Yvan Tremblay Présence Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PCQ PQ QLP
HereLévis 29.9%27.1%24.1%11.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +8.6 16.1% +10.9 27.9% −3.8 23.4% −11.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Lévis, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Bernard Drainville

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Bernard Drainville

    Bernard Drainville

    A passionate follower of current events and a distinguished journalist, Bernard Drainville is also a veteran of political life. Father of three children, Bernard will leverage his experience in politics, his communication skills, and his mastery of all types of files to defend the interests of citizens in Lévis.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Yvan Tremblay

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Karine Laflamme

    Karine Laflamme

    A recognized businesswoman, Karine Laflamme has extensive experience in management, economic development and municipal administration. A former municipal councillor in Lévis, administrator of the Société de développement économique de Lévis and former president of the Lévis Chamber of Commerce, she is well familiar with the realities of citizens and businesses in the region. She is currently Chief Executive Officer of the music school L'Accroche Notes. Karine wishes to represent the citizens of Lévis with dynamism, proximity and efficiency. She defends concrete solutions to improve mobility, notably through the realization of a third link to the east, while promoting the purchasing power of families, access to property ownership, more accessible health care and a reduction in the tax and regulatory burden.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Yanick Godbout

    Yanick Godbout

    Yanick Godbout holds degrees in political science and administration from UQAM and master's coursework from Université Laval. He is director of international-services development at Desjardins and teaches international business at UQAR's Lévis campus. He began as an international-affairs adviser, became Quebec delegate in Los Angeles, led Développement PME International, chaired Commerce International Québec, and was vice-president of international business development for a 200-employee manufacturer. The Lévis candidate is an international-trade specialist who wants to serve citizens and Quebec's economy.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Brittany Blais

    Brittany Blais

    Born and residing in Lévis, Brittany Blais is currently the Executive Director of the Maison du Loisir 50+, formerly known as the Maison des aînés de Lévis, a position she has held since 2022. She is now making the leap into provincial politics under the banner of the Quebec Liberal Party as a candidate in her riding. After studying at the Université du Québec à Rimouski (Lévis campus), the PLQ candidate served as coordinator of the 2-1-1 Québec service at the Centre d'action bénévole Bellechasse-Lévis-Lotbinière from 2011 to 2018. She then joined the Maison des aînés de Lévis, first as coordinator and then as Executive Director in 2022. Deeply rooted in her Lévis community, she has also held various student jobs in the region over the years. In addition to her professional experience, Brittany Blais has accumulated 15 years of commitment to social development in Lévis. Currently a board member of the Table des aînés de Lévis and Saint-Lambert-de-Lauzon, a member of the universal accessibility committee of the City of Lévis, and a member of the selection committee of the Office municipal d'habitation de Lévis, she is well aware of the importance of decentralizing decision-making power to municipalities and grassroots stakeholders. Her experience aligns with Charles Milliard's desire to grant more leverage to the decision-making bodies closest to the realities experienced by citizens. Over the years, she has also served as a board member of the Association québécoise des centres communautaires pour aînés and of the Corporation de développement communautaire de Lévis. She has also served as a commissioner on the Commission de développement social et communautaire of the City of Lévis. × I commit to voting for Brittany Blais as Member of the National Assembly in the riding of Lévis

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Simon Beauchamp-Léveillé

    Simon Beauchamp-Léveillé

    Simon Beauchamp-Léveillé wants concrete action on Lévis's urgent issues: transportation, housing, homelessness, and access to education. He proposes practical solutions to improve sustainable mobility, develop social and community housing, strengthen local health and education services, and fight the rising cost of living. His goal is a fairer, more accessible, and more solidaristic Lévis for everyone.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
28.0 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bernard Drainville Elected CAQ 18,051 48.8
Karine Laflamme PCQ 7,677 20.8
Pierre-Gilles Morel PQ 4,775 12.9
Valérie Cayouette-Guilloteau QS 4,244 11.5
Richard Garon QLP 1,899 5.1
Mehdi Lahlou Other 213 0.6
André Voyer Other 138 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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