Riding profile
Charlesbourg
The question
Charlesbourg: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Charlesbourg, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jonatan Julien
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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PCQ Challenger 
Éloïse Coulombe
Always driven by a deep interest in people and their reality, Éloïse has built her career around citizen engagement and dialogue. Alongside her studies in legal techniques, political science and law, she notably co-founded a youth organization aimed at fostering the meeting of ideas and different viewpoints.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger 
Seynabou Top
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Gabriel Coulombe
Economist, pedagogue and outstanding communicator: Gabriel will be able to defend the interests of his fellow citizens with rigor and determination. Since 2022, we have had the chance to count on him as co-spokesperson in economic matters.
source ↗
Current forecast
CAQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 81%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 97%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PCQ | PQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCharlesbourg | 27.5% | 25.8% | 24.1% | 12.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.3% +7.2 | 13.2% +12.7 | 30.1% −6.0 | 27.2% −15.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonatan Julien Elected | CAQ | 18,921 | 45.0 | — |
| Jean Domingue | PCQ | 8,564 | 20.4 | — |
| Priscilla Corbeil | PQ | 5,967 | 14.2 | — |
| Ève Duhaime | QS | 5,486 | 13.1 | — |
| Mahamadou Sissoko | PLQ | 2,518 | 6.0 | — |
| Odevie Essaidi | Other | 348 | 0.8 | — |
| David Cantin | Other | 163 | 0.4 | — |
| Daniel Pelletier | Other | 75 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026