Riding profile

Charlesbourg

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Charlesbourg: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PCQ

Toss-up

Probability
61%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 26.9%

    Éloïse Coulombe

  • CAQ 26.0%

    Marie-Josée Morency

  • PQ 25.5%

    Gabriel Coulombe

  • QLP 13.2%

    Seynabou Top

  • QS 7.7%

    Georges Goma

  • Other 0.7%

    Leopold Toko Simo Parti accès propriété et équité - Équipe Québec debout

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereCharlesbourg 26.9%26.0%25.5%13.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +10.8 21.3% +4.7 27.9% −2.4 23.4% −10.2

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Charlesbourg, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jonatan Julien

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Marie-Josée Morency

    Marie-Josée Morency

    Senior manager, Marie-Josée Morency served as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie du Grand Lévis from 2019 until very recently. An action-oriented woman with strong field expertise, she has accumulated 30 years of experience in entrepreneurship, organizational leadership, and business development. Born in Quebec City, she grew up in the Charlesbourg riding. Her academic background combines management, governance, and communications. She has pursued training from HEC Montréal, the Collège des administrateurs de sociétés, and the École des sciences de la gestion at UQAM, and holds a bachelor's degree in public communications from Université Laval. Her contribution to community development has been recognized on several occasions, notably by the Assemblée nationale, which presented her with a Medal in 2020, and by the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, which awarded her in the "Leadership" category in 2025. Named Honorary Lieutenant-Colonel of the Régiment de la Chaudière of the Canadian Armed Forces, she embodies values of service and commitment reflected in sustained participation in numerous causes. In recent years, she has served as a director on the board of Hydro-Québec, and has contributed to the work of the Commission de la capitale nationale du Québec, Pôle Québec Logistique, and the Société Alzheimer de Québec. Marie-Josée Morency's career demonstrates inclusive leadership, deep knowledge of ground realities, and a recognized ability to mobilize partners to advance concrete projects meeting the needs of the Charlesbourg population.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Leopold Toko Simo

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Éloïse Coulombe

    Éloïse Coulombe

    A student in legal techniques, political science, and law, Éloïse is actively involved with youth and her community. Co-founder of a youth organization that promotes dialogue, she is also the spokesperson for the Conservative Party of Quebec on youth matters. Her background has given her a solid understanding of the issues affecting families, workers, and the next generation. Éloïse wishes to represent the citizens of Charlesbourg with attentiveness, determination, and proximity. She advocates concrete solutions to facilitate access to home ownership, support families, improve access to healthcare, reduce the tax and regulatory burden, and foster a more dynamic economy in order to offer greater opportunities to future generations.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Gabriel Coulombe

    Gabriel Coulombe

    Economist, pedagogue and outstanding communicator: Gabriel will be able to defend the interests of his fellow citizens with rigor and determination. Since 2022, we have had the chance to count on him as co-spokesperson in economic matters.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Seynabou Top

    Seynabou Top

    Recognized for her leadership, commitment and expertise in project management, governance and international cooperation, Ms. Top wishes to put her experience at the service of the citizens of Charlesbourg to help build a more prosperous, inclusive and family-friendly Quebec. Born into a family deeply attached to the values of solidarity, commitment and community service, Seynabou Top has devoted her career to supporting public, community and international organizations in carrying out projects that have a concrete impact on people's lives. Over the past seventeen years, she has worked in the fields of international cooperation, economic development, gender equality and human rights. Ms. Top holds a Master's degree in Project Management from Université Paris 12 and a Master's degree in International Administration from the École nationale d'administration publique (ÉNAP), as well as recognized expertise in international cooperation, governance and diplomacy. Throughout her career, she has distinguished herself by her ability to mobilize stakeholders around common goals, foster dialogue and produce lasting results. Today, she wishes to put her skills at the service of the citizens of Charlesbourg. As a grassroots candidate, Seynabou Top intends to run a grassroots campaign based on listening and citizen participation. She wants to meet Charlesbourg residents to better understand their concerns and bring their voice to the National Assembly. Convinced that the best solutions emerge from dialogue with citizens, she wants to help strengthen the bond of trust between elected officials and the population.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Georges Goma

    Georges Goma

    Georges Goma is an engaged progressive intellectual who has taught at university for more than 35 years and specializes in issues of poverty and population aging. Throughout his career, which took him to France, the United States and finally Quebec, he has been very active and involved in political and community circles. Already a Québec solidaire candidate in 2018 and 2022, Georges continues to seek to bring a unifying voice to Charlesbourg and to listen to citizens of every generation.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
24.6 pts
Turnout
74.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.3 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jonatan Julien Elected CAQ 18,921 45.0
Jean Domingue PCQ 8,564 20.4
Priscilla Corbeil PQ 5,967 14.2
Ève Duhaime QS 5,486 13.1
Mahamadou Sissoko QLP 2,518 6.0
Odevie Essaidi Other 348 0.8
David Cantin Other 163 0.4
Daniel Pelletier Other 75 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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