Riding profile
Charlesbourg
The question
Charlesbourg: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PCQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 61%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCharlesbourg | 26.9% | 26.0% | 25.5% | 13.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 16.1% +10.8 | 21.3% +4.7 | 27.9% −2.4 | 23.4% −10.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Charlesbourg, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jonatan Julien
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Marie-Josée Morency
Senior manager, Marie-Josée Morency served as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie du Grand Lévis from 2019 until very recently. An action-oriented woman with strong field expertise, she has accumulated 30 years of experience in entrepreneurship, organizational leadership, and business development. Born in Quebec City, she grew up in the Charlesbourg riding. Her academic background combines management, governance, and communications. She has pursued training from HEC Montréal, the Collège des administrateurs de sociétés, and the École des sciences de la gestion at UQAM, and holds a bachelor's degree in public communications from Université Laval. Her contribution to community development has been recognized on several occasions, notably by the Assemblée nationale, which presented her with a Medal in 2020, and by the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, which awarded her in the "Leadership" category in 2025. Named Honorary Lieutenant-Colonel of the Régiment de la Chaudière of the Canadian Armed Forces, she embodies values of service and commitment reflected in sustained participation in numerous causes. In recent years, she has served as a director on the board of Hydro-Québec, and has contributed to the work of the Commission de la capitale nationale du Québec, Pôle Québec Logistique, and the Société Alzheimer de Québec. Marie-Josée Morency's career demonstrates inclusive leadership, deep knowledge of ground realities, and a recognized ability to mobilize partners to advance concrete projects meeting the needs of the Charlesbourg population.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Leopold Toko Simo
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Éloïse Coulombe
A student in legal techniques, political science, and law, Éloïse is actively involved with youth and her community. Co-founder of a youth organization that promotes dialogue, she is also the spokesperson for the Conservative Party of Quebec on youth matters. Her background has given her a solid understanding of the issues affecting families, workers, and the next generation. Éloïse wishes to represent the citizens of Charlesbourg with attentiveness, determination, and proximity. She advocates concrete solutions to facilitate access to home ownership, support families, improve access to healthcare, reduce the tax and regulatory burden, and foster a more dynamic economy in order to offer greater opportunities to future generations.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Gabriel Coulombe
Economist, pedagogue and outstanding communicator: Gabriel will be able to defend the interests of his fellow citizens with rigor and determination. Since 2022, we have had the chance to count on him as co-spokesperson in economic matters.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Seynabou Top
Recognized for her leadership, commitment and expertise in project management, governance and international cooperation, Ms. Top wishes to put her experience at the service of the citizens of Charlesbourg to help build a more prosperous, inclusive and family-friendly Quebec. Born into a family deeply attached to the values of solidarity, commitment and community service, Seynabou Top has devoted her career to supporting public, community and international organizations in carrying out projects that have a concrete impact on people's lives. Over the past seventeen years, she has worked in the fields of international cooperation, economic development, gender equality and human rights. Ms. Top holds a Master's degree in Project Management from Université Paris 12 and a Master's degree in International Administration from the École nationale d'administration publique (ÉNAP), as well as recognized expertise in international cooperation, governance and diplomacy. Throughout her career, she has distinguished herself by her ability to mobilize stakeholders around common goals, foster dialogue and produce lasting results. Today, she wishes to put her skills at the service of the citizens of Charlesbourg. As a grassroots candidate, Seynabou Top intends to run a grassroots campaign based on listening and citizen participation. She wants to meet Charlesbourg residents to better understand their concerns and bring their voice to the National Assembly. Convinced that the best solutions emerge from dialogue with citizens, she wants to help strengthen the bond of trust between elected officials and the population.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Georges Goma
Georges Goma is an engaged progressive intellectual who has taught at university for more than 35 years and specializes in issues of poverty and population aging. Throughout his career, which took him to France, the United States and finally Quebec, he has been very active and involved in political and community circles. Already a Québec solidaire candidate in 2018 and 2022, Georges continues to seek to bring a unifying voice to Charlesbourg and to listen to citizens of every generation.
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonatan Julien Elected | CAQ | 18,921 | 45.0 | — |
| Jean Domingue | PCQ | 8,564 | 20.4 | — |
| Priscilla Corbeil | PQ | 5,967 | 14.2 | — |
| Ève Duhaime | QS | 5,486 | 13.1 | — |
| Mahamadou Sissoko | QLP | 2,518 | 6.0 | — |
| Odevie Essaidi | Other | 348 | 0.8 | — |
| David Cantin | Other | 163 | 0.4 | — |
| Daniel Pelletier | Other | 75 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026