Riding profile

Jean-Lesage

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Jean-Lesage: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

QS

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
63%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • QS 26.8%

    Sol Zanetti incumbent

  • PQ 25.3%

    Claude Villeneuve

  • PCQ 19.3%

    Nancy Joannette

  • CAQ 18.5%

    Nathalie St-Pierre

  • QLP 9.3%

    Gertrude Bourdon

  • Other 0.8%

    Geneviève Dorval Parti nul

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

QS PQ PCQ CAQ
HereJean-Lesage 26.8%25.3%19.3%18.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 9.6% +17.2 27.9% −2.6 16.1% +3.2 21.3% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Jean-Lesage, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Québec solidaire ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sol Zanetti

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QS Incumbent
    Sol Zanetti

    Sol Zanetti

    For eight years, Sol Zanetti has fought for the people of Jean-Lesage in the National Assembly. These struggles are not abstract or disconnected: when he speaks for constituents, he speaks for neighbours, shopkeepers, and the neighbourhood. A former philosophy professor, he believes big ideas find their meaning through dialogue with people. In the community and at the Assembly, he defends politics closer to people and oriented toward the common good, with a freer Quebec in mind.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Nathalie St-Pierre

    Nathalie St-Pierre

    With more than thirty years of experience in communications and government relations, Nathalie St-Pierre has developed marked expertise through strategic responsibilities within leading organizations. After more than 10 years in communications at the Autorité des marchés financiers, she now lends her know-how to the Fondation Élan as head of philanthropic development and communications. In 2018, she joined the Quebec government, where she would hold several key positions, notably as political advisor, director of communications, and senior advisor to various ministers responsible for Agriculture, Cybersecurity and Digital, as well as Economy, Innovation and Energy. Holder of a bachelor's degree in administration, marketing option, from Université Laval, Nathalie St-Pierre stands out for her keen understanding of the governmental apparatus and her in-depth knowledge of public issues affecting citizens.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Geneviève Dorval

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Nancy Joannette

    Nancy Joannette

    A Quebec City resident, Nancy Joannette has solid experience in both the private sector and public service. After a career in the insurance industry, she currently holds a position as administrative assistant to management. Her background has enabled her to better understand the challenges faced by families, entrepreneurs, and organizations, and fuels her commitment to a more efficient and prosperous Quebec. Nancy wishes to represent the citizens of Jean-Lesage with pragmatism, proximity, and listening. She advocates for concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to property ownership, improve access to health care, and reduce the tax and regulatory burden. She believes that responsible state management and a strong economy are essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Claude Villeneuve

    Claude Villeneuve

    Municipal councillor and leader of the official opposition at Quebec City Hall from 2021 to 2025, Claude Villeneuve recently served as communications director for the Parti Québécois parliamentary wing. A former professional writer, he worked in Premier Pauline Marois's office in 2012, then was a columnist at Journal de Québec, Ici Québec, FM 93, and Radio X from 2014 to 2021. He wants to represent his neighbours and community and address housing, homelessness, air quality, and major projects for the capital.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Gertrude Bourdon

    Gertrude Bourdon

    Originally from Chaudière-Appalaches, Gertrude Bourdon studied at Polyvalente des Abénaquis and earned a nursing diploma at Cégep de Limoilou, followed by university studies in management at Université TELUQ, a multidisciplinary bachelor's degree at Université Laval and graduate studies in public management at ENAP. She began as a nurse at the Centre hospitalier de l'Université Laval (CHUL), rose through the health network and became CHUQ's director general in 2009. Nearly three years later she led the merger of the Centre hospitalier affilié universitaire de Québec with several facilities, including CHUL, Hôpital de l'Enfant-Jésus, Hôtel-Dieu de Québec, Hôpital Saint-François d'Assise and Hôpital du Saint-Sacrement. In 2015 she became president and CEO of CHU de Québec–Université Laval, Quebec's largest hospital centre, overseeing the new university hospital complex at Hôpital de l'Enfant-Jésus, a more-than-$2-billion investment in Jean-Lesage. She has also contributed to major philanthropic organizations, chaired the Fiducie du patrimoine culturel des Augustines and served on boards including the Monastère des Augustines and Fondation Digestive. For more than ten years she has sat on the strategic steering committee of the Rencontres de Nice, a Quebec–France health-systems forum. She wants to apply her management experience to the political team led by Charles Milliard, whose priorities include improving public services, including a public telehealth platform accessible 24/7.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
6.5 pts
Turnout
67.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sol Zanetti Elected QS 11,390 37.8
Christiane Gamache CAQ 9,426 31.3
Denise Peter PCQ 4,258 14.1
Michaël Potvin PQ 3,337 11.1
Charles Robert QLP 1,326 4.4
Félix-Antoine Bérubé-Simard Other 237 0.8
Mario Ledoux Other 67 0.2
Claude Moreau Other 57 0.2
Lucie Perreault Other 56 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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