Riding profile

Taschereau

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Taschereau: will QS lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 39.8%

    Christian Savard

  • QS 26.6%

    Etienne Grandmont incumbent

  • PCQ 11.9%

    Eliot Estévez-Verville

  • CAQ 10.8%

    Brigitte Martin

  • QLP 10.2%

    Farnell Morisset

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QS PCQ CAQ
HereTaschereau 39.8%26.6%11.9%10.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +11.9 9.6% +17.0 16.1% −4.2 21.3% −10.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Taschereau, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with Québec solidaire in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 27% for Québec solidaire, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Etienne Grandmont

Sits with QS

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • QS Incumbent
    Etienne Grandmont

    Etienne Grandmont

    Elected as MP for Taschereau in 2022, Etienne Grandmont is a long-time activist engaged for nearly 20 years in social and environmental struggles in Quebec City. Before entering politics, he contributed to the fight against poverty and promoted the right to housing within the Comité des citoyens et citoyennes du quartier Saint-Sauveur, then directed for ten years the organization Accès transports viables, where he defended sustainable and accessible mobility. For four years, he has proudly carried the voice of the people of Taschereau at the National Assembly, where he draws on his expertise in transportation, the environment, and social solidarity to build a more just, green, and inclusive Quebec.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Brigitte Martin

    Brigitte Martin

    A seasoned strategist and manager, Brigitte Martin has more than 25 years of experience in university, government, municipal and community settings. During more than 22 years at Université Laval, she contributed to the institution’s strategic development and international profile, establishing numerous partnerships and representing it in more than 60 countries. The Capitale-Nationale is very close to her heart. After serving as chief of staff at Quebec City Hall, she now contributes to strategic decisions concerning the region’s major files. This experience gives her a deep knowledge of Quebec City and its economic and social issues. A former municipal elected official in a small community in Chaudière-Appalaches and strongly committed to protecting natural environments, Brigitte combines political experience, knowledge of the field and genuine environmental sensitivity. She wants to put these assets at the service of the citizens of Taschereau, offering them representation equal to their expectations and to the challenges specific to the heart of the capital.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Guy Boivin

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-François Joubert

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Eliot Estévez-Verville

    Eliot Estévez-Verville

    Despite his young age, Eliot engages in politics with the will to contribute to the emergence of a new generation that wishes to actively participate in public decisions. For him, becoming an MNA is a way to make the voice of all generations heard and to defend a vision of Quebec turned towards the future, based on dialogue and the search for concrete solutions.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Christian Savard

    Christian Savard

    Former director general of Vivre en Ville since 2006, Christian Savard is running to represent downtown Quebec City and serve its residents. He holds a master's in land-use planning and regional development and a bachelor's in political science from Université Laval. The Taschereau candidate wants concrete solutions to the housing and homelessness crises and mobility issues, with collective interest at the heart of government priorities.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Farnell Morisset

    Farnell Morisset

    An engineer and lawyer by training, Farnell Morrisset is a well-known popular science writer who breaks down the major issues shaping our society. A civil engineering graduate of Laval University, Farnell worked for five years as an international business development engineer for a company based in the Technology Park. At the same time, he was involved with organizations working to welcome and integrate immigrants in the region. He shifted his focus to law and earned his bachelor’s degree in law with a minor in economics from McGill University. Recruited by a major business law firm in New York, his career in high finance in the United States during the first Trump administration exposed him to the dangers of the centralization of power and growing economic inequality. He left New York to complete a master’s degree with distinction at the London School of Economics. Since 2021, he has been regularly posting short pieces on social media that provide information, explain complex topics in layman’s terms, and offer insights on legal, economic, and political issues in Quebec. His approach, focused on facts and dialogue, earned him a spot on La Presse’s list of the 12 “true influencers” in 2023. Back in downtown Québec City since 2024, Farnell Morrisset hopes to represent the citizens of Taschereau in the National Assembly and defend the values that ensure our freedom and collective well-being: the decentralization of power, an economy that benefits everyone, a reliable social safety net, and the preservation of our achievements for future generations.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
QS
Margin
17.0 pts
Turnout
72.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Etienne Grandmont Elected QS 13,588 39.5
Jeanne Robin PQ 7,757 22.6
Pascale St-Hilaire CAQ 7,537 21.9
Marie-Josée Hélie PCQ 3,012 8.8
Ahmed Lamine Touré QLP 2,025 5.9
Andrew Karim Other 225 0.7
Jean-François Joubert Other 102 0.3
Marie-Soleil Fillion Other 83 0.2
Guy Boivin Other 41 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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