Riding profile

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Martine Biron

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Martine Biron

    Martine Biron

    With a prolific career of no less than 35 years and as a top-tier journalist, Martine Biron worked for Radio-Canada from 1993 to 2022. After covering societal issues for many years, Martine makes the leap into provincial politics with the will to be in action and the desire that her experience can serve Quebec and the Chutes-de-la-Chaudière community.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger
    Stéphane Clavet

    Stéphane Clavet

    source ↗

Current forecast

PCQ

Toss-up

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
49%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 35.6%
  • CAQ 30.1%
  • PQ 22.0%
  • PLQ 8.1%
  • QS 3.5%
  • Other 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ PLQ
HereChutes-de-la-Chaudière 35.6%30.1%22.0%8.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 13.2% +22.5 20.3% +9.9 30.1% −8.0 27.2% −19.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
20.3 pts
Turnout
78.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martine Biron Elected CAQ 22,055 47.5 —
Mario Fortier PCQ 12,640 27.2 —
François-Noël Brault PQ 5,163 11.1 —
Caroline Thibault QS 4,311 9.3 —
Wafa Oueslati PLQ 2,298 5.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026