Riding profile

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PCQ

Toss-up

Probability
70%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
54%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 33.1%

    Dominique Dumas

  • CAQ 29.6%

    Martine Biron incumbent

  • PQ 20.3%

    Serge Bonin

  • QLP 11.3%

    Stéphane Clavet

  • QS 5.4%

    Jean-Benoît Ouellet

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereChutes-de-la-Chaudière 33.1%29.6%20.3%11.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +16.9 21.3% +8.3 27.9% −7.6 23.4% −12.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Martine Biron

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Martine Biron

    Martine Biron

    With a prolific career of no less than 35 years and as a top-tier journalist, Martine Biron worked for Radio-Canada from 1993 to 2022. After covering societal issues for many years, Martine makes the leap into provincial politics with the will to be in action and the desire that her experience can serve Quebec and the Chutes-de-la-Chaudière community.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    David Baillargeon

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Dominique Dumas

    Dominique Dumas

    A Charny resident, father of two children, and well-known radio host in the greater Quebec City region, Dominique Dumas brings more than 20 years of experience in communications. His outspoken nature, proximity to citizens, and knowledge of ground realities have led him to want to move from words to action in order to concretely contribute to the future of his community. Dominique wishes to represent the citizens of Chutes-de-la-Chaudière with authenticity, listening, and pragmatism. He advocates for concrete solutions to restore purchasing power to families, facilitate access to property ownership, improve access to health care, and reduce the tax and regulatory burden. He believes that a strong economy and responsible state management are essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Serge Bonin

    Serge Bonin

    A graduate of the Conservatoire d'art dramatique de Québec and a holder of certificates in literary and cinematographic studies from Université Laval, Serge Bonin is an author, actor, director, and narrator. He was also director of the Chaire publique AELIÉS at Université Laval and artistic director of théâtre du Palier, before entering municipal politics. Long engaged in his community, Serge Bonin has unwavering attachment to the Chaudières-Appalaches region. After serving as municipal councillor for the Saint-Étienne district in Lévis from 2021 to 2025, he became leader of the Repensons Lévis party and candidate for mayor in the most recent municipal elections. "I am determined to convince our people to join our vision for society: Quebec's independence. All indicators show that it is essential to acquire full powers over immigration and culture, to recover the sums wasted by Ottawa in order to adequately fund services to the Quebec population, and to control all the levers unique to a sovereign state."

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Stéphane Clavet

    Stéphane Clavet

    Stéphane Clavet has lived in Saint-Nicolas for over 20 years and has chosen to raise his three children there with his wife. He is very involved in his community and places great importance on the values of respect, commitment, and perseverance. A graduate of Laval University, he holds a bachelor’s degree in kinesiology and a bachelor’s degree in physical education. His education has equipped him with a rigorous approach, a sense of responsibility, and the ability to rally people around common goals. For over 30 years, he has been active in the business world, primarily in sales. There, he has developed a solid understanding of economic realities and the challenges businesses face. Convinced that innovation and effective support are essential to business prosperity, he believes in an approach that benefits entrepreneurs, workers, and families alike. Beyond his career, Stéphane has devoted a significant amount of his time to volunteer work in the sports community. As a youth hockey coach—notably with the Husky Chaudière-Ouest—he has also served as a speaker for the ice hockey federation, contributing to the development of coaches and young athletes. He has also been involved as a soccer coach with the Rapides de Chaudière-Ouest. Drawing on his professional experience and his commitment to his community, Stéphane Clavet now wishes to devote his energy to serving the residents of Chutes-de-la-Chaudière and representing them in the National Assembly.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Jean-Benoît Ouellet

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
20.3 pts
Turnout
78.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martine Biron Elected CAQ 22,055 47.5
Mario Fortier PCQ 12,640 27.2
François-Noël Brault PQ 5,163 11.1
Caroline Thibault QS 4,311 9.3
Wafa Oueslati QLP 2,298 5.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026