Riding profile
Louis-Hébert
The question
Louis-Hébert: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 76%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | PCQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLouis-Hébert | 28.9% | 25.1% | 20.9% | 17.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +1.1 | 21.3% +3.8 | 16.1% +4.8 | 23.4% −6.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Louis-Hébert, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Geneviève Guilbault
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Challenger
Marc-Antoine Bernier
A seasoned journalist and manager, Marc-Antoine Bernier has headed TVA’s newsroom in Quebec City since 2019 and oversees news production for Quebec City and the regions. Throughout his career, he has worked as a journalist in different parts of the country, developing privileged knowledge of the realities and concerns shaping Quebec and Canada. Holding degrees in political science, journalism and translation, he is currently pursuing an EMBA at Université Laval to deepen his expertise in management, economics and strategy. The father of two young children and deeply attached to the Capitale-Nationale, Marc-Antoine now wishes to put his experience and understanding of major issues at the service of the citizens of Louis-Hébert. He wants to help create greater wealth so that more can be invested in education, infrastructure, public services and quality of life.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Jean-François Grenier
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Vincent Bégin
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Marcos Archambault
Me Marcos Archambault is a notary and holds a bachelor's degree from Université Laval as well as a master's degree in notarial law from the University of Ottawa. He also holds a diploma in governance from McGill University. With solid experience in governance, public affairs, and within the governmental apparatus, he has a concrete understanding of the issues related to the management of the State, public institutions, and the needs of taxpayers. Marcos wishes to represent the citizens of Louis-Hébert with rigour, pragmatism, and proximity. He advocates concrete solutions to reduce bureaucracy, improve the management of public funds, lighten the tax burden, and foster a more dynamic economy for the benefit of families, workers, and entrepreneurs.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Chloé Fauchon
Public law and environmental law attorney, Me Fauchon is proud to now take on the challenge of politics. She thus joins this list of candidates who make this choice out of love for Quebec and public service and to contribute to the independence of our country.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Richard Bélanger
Having grown up in Louis-Hébert and currently residing in Cap-Rouge, he has a deep understanding of the county. A former player for Laval University’s Rouge et Or, Richard has always been deeply committed to his community and the people who live there. After 30 years in business and organizational transformation, he has now chosen to put his experience to work for the people of Louis-Hébert. Throughout his career, he has worked with companies and organizations across various sectors, eventually becoming an executive coach for business leaders. At the same time, he joined the Canadian Forces Reserve at the age of 17, where he served for more than 25 years. There, he held command positions, led large-scale exercises—including three in the Far North—and was deployed to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Anne-Sophie Roy
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geneviève Guilbault Elected | CAQ | 17,803 | 47.2 | — |
| Victor Dubuc | PQ | 6,228 | 16.5 | — |
| Marika Robitaille | PCQ | 5,509 | 14.6 | — |
| Steven Lachance | QS | 4,537 | 12.0 | — |
| Dominic Cardinal | QLP | 3,283 | 8.7 | — |
| Daydree Vendette | Other | 285 | 0.8 | — |
| Jean-Pierre Hamel | Other | 33 | 0.1 | — |
| Yolaine Brochu | Other | 32 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026