Riding profile

Louis-Hébert

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Louis-Hébert: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
76%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 28.9%

    Chloé Fauchon

  • CAQ 25.1%

    Marc-Antoine Bernier

  • PCQ 20.9%

    Marcos Archambault

  • QLP 17.3%

    Richard Bélanger

  • QS 7.3%

    Anne-Sophie Roy

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereLouis-Hébert 28.9%25.1%20.9%17.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +1.1 21.3% +3.8 16.1% +4.8 23.4% −6.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Louis-Hébert, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Geneviève Guilbault

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Marc-Antoine Bernier

    Marc-Antoine Bernier

    A seasoned journalist and manager, Marc-Antoine Bernier has headed TVA’s newsroom in Quebec City since 2019 and oversees news production for Quebec City and the regions. Throughout his career, he has worked as a journalist in different parts of the country, developing privileged knowledge of the realities and concerns shaping Quebec and Canada. Holding degrees in political science, journalism and translation, he is currently pursuing an EMBA at Université Laval to deepen his expertise in management, economics and strategy. The father of two young children and deeply attached to the Capitale-Nationale, Marc-Antoine now wishes to put his experience and understanding of major issues at the service of the citizens of Louis-Hébert. He wants to help create greater wealth so that more can be invested in education, infrastructure, public services and quality of life.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jean-François Grenier

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Vincent Bégin

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marcos Archambault

    Marcos Archambault

    Me Marcos Archambault is a notary and holds a bachelor's degree from Université Laval as well as a master's degree in notarial law from the University of Ottawa. He also holds a diploma in governance from McGill University. With solid experience in governance, public affairs, and within the governmental apparatus, he has a concrete understanding of the issues related to the management of the State, public institutions, and the needs of taxpayers. Marcos wishes to represent the citizens of Louis-Hébert with rigour, pragmatism, and proximity. He advocates concrete solutions to reduce bureaucracy, improve the management of public funds, lighten the tax burden, and foster a more dynamic economy for the benefit of families, workers, and entrepreneurs.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Chloé Fauchon

    Chloé Fauchon

    Public law and environmental law attorney, Me Fauchon is proud to now take on the challenge of politics. She thus joins this list of candidates who make this choice out of love for Quebec and public service and to contribute to the independence of our country.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Richard Bélanger

    Richard Bélanger

    Having grown up in Louis-Hébert and currently residing in Cap-Rouge, he has a deep understanding of the county. A former player for Laval University’s Rouge et Or, Richard has always been deeply committed to his community and the people who live there. After 30 years in business and organizational transformation, he has now chosen to put his experience to work for the people of Louis-Hébert. Throughout his career, he has worked with companies and organizations across various sectors, eventually becoming an executive coach for business leaders. At the same time, he joined the Canadian Forces Reserve at the age of 17, where he served for more than 25 years. There, he held command positions, led large-scale exercises—including three in the Far North—and was deployed to Kandahar, Afghanistan.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Anne-Sophie Roy

    Anne-Sophie Roy

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.7 pts
Turnout
81.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Geneviève Guilbault Elected CAQ 17,803 47.2
Victor Dubuc PQ 6,228 16.5
Marika Robitaille PCQ 5,509 14.6
Steven Lachance QS 4,537 12.0
Dominic Cardinal QLP 3,283 8.7
Daydree Vendette Other 285 0.8
Jean-Pierre Hamel Other 33 0.1
Yolaine Brochu Other 32 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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