Riding profile

Louis-Hébert

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Louis-Hébert: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Louis-Hébert, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Geneviève Guilbault

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Challenger
    Chloé Fauchon

    Chloé Fauchon

    Public law and environmental law attorney, Me Fauchon is proud to now take on the challenge of politics. She thus joins this list of candidates who make this choice out of love for Quebec and public service and to contribute to the independence of our country.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
96%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 27.9%
  • CAQ 26.0%
  • PCQ 19.9%
  • PLQ 16.1%
  • QS 9.3%
  • Other 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereLouis-Hébert 27.9%26.0%19.9%16.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% −2.1 20.3% +5.7 13.2% +6.7 27.2% −11.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.7 pts
Turnout
81.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Geneviève Guilbault Elected CAQ 17,803 47.2 —
Victor Dubuc PQ 6,228 16.5 —
Marika Robitaille PCQ 5,509 14.6 —
Steven Lachance QS 4,537 12.0 —
Dominic Cardinal PLQ 3,283 8.7 —
Daydree Vendette Other 285 0.8 —
Jean-Pierre Hamel Other 33 0.1 —
Yolaine Brochu Other 32 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026