Riding profile
Jean-Talon
The question
Jean-Talon: a safe seat for the PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | QLP | CAQ | QS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJean-Talon | 32.9% | 21.1% | 16.2% | 14.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +5.0 | 23.4% −2.3 | 21.3% −5.1 | 9.6% +5.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Jean-Talon, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 21% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pascal Paradis
Sits with PQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PQ Incumbent
Pascal Paradis
The former president of Avocats sans frontières Canada won the partial election in Jean-Talon in October 2023. Since entering politics, he has also been able to put forward new ideas for Quebec.
source ↗ -
CAQ Challenger
William Denis
A voice of a new generation in politics, William Denis is driven by the will to participate in creating a proud and prosperous Quebec. Originally from Saint-Ubalde in Portneuf County, he grew up on a dairy farm where he developed a strong sense of duty and rigor.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Claudiu Bell
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Jesse Robitaille
Arrived in Quebec in 2017, Jesse quickly chose to become involved in his community through his work and commitment. After working in the kitchen, he continued his career as a paramedic, a profession that allows him to serve others daily. At only 27 years old, he decided to enter politics with the determination to contribute meaningfully to citizens' well-being and give back to the community that welcomed him. Thanks to his field experience, Jesse understands the realities faced by families, workers and people dealing with a healthcare system under pressure. His journey has allowed him to develop a strong sense of responsibility, listening and composure—qualities essential to effectively represent the citizens of Jean-Talon and defend their concerns at the National Assembly. Jesse wishes to work toward improving access to healthcare by encouraging greater private sector participation to reduce wait times for surgeries, emergency services and specialist consultations. He also wants to help restore purchasing power to families by alleviating the tax and regulatory burden on taxpayers and entrepreneurs, while reducing barriers to housing construction to facilitate property ownership for young people and families.
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Julie White
A native of Quebec City, Julie White is a renowned manager and an effective communicator who stands out for her thoroughness, her pragmatic approach, and her dedication. A lawyer by training, she has extensive experience in the fields of economic development and public policy. As President and CEO of Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, Julie has represented the interests of thousands of manufacturing companies and actively contributed to major policy debates in Quebec. Over the years, she has established herself as an influential voice on economic issues. She has also held several strategic positions in political offices and advised numerous organizations on their public affairs initiatives while working at a major Quebec communications firm. Her career has enabled her to develop a deep understanding of the challenges faced by Quebec entrepreneurs, workers, and families. Julie White now hopes to put her experience and energy to work for the residents of Jean-Talon, with a unifying approach focused on the realities of the people in the district.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Sonia Tchuembou
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joëlle Boutin Elected | CAQ | 11,105 | 32.5 | — |
| Olivier Bolduc | QS | 8,117 | 23.8 | — |
| Gabriel Coulombe | PQ | 6,386 | 18.7 | — |
| Julie White | QLP | 4,616 | 13.5 | — |
| Sébastien Clavet | PCQ | 3,541 | 10.4 | — |
| Alexandre Dallaire | Other | 262 | 0.8 | — |
| Julien Cardinal | Other | 93 | 0.3 | — |
| Stéphane Pouleur | Other | 44 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026