Riding profile

Jean-Talon

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Jean-Talon: a safe seat for the PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 32.9%

    Pascal Paradis incumbent

  • QLP 21.1%

    Julie White

  • CAQ 16.2%

    William Denis

  • QS 14.7%

    Sonia Tchuembou

  • PCQ 14.4%

    Jesse Robitaille

  • Other 0.7%

    Claudiu Bell Équipe autonomiste

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QLP CAQ QS
HereJean-Talon 32.9%21.1%16.2%14.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +5.0 23.4% −2.3 21.3% −5.1 9.6% +5.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Jean-Talon, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 21% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pascal Paradis

Sits with PQ

Since
2023-10-02
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Pascal Paradis

    Pascal Paradis

    The former president of Avocats sans frontières Canada won the partial election in Jean-Talon in October 2023. Since entering politics, he has also been able to put forward new ideas for Quebec.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    William Denis

    William Denis

    A voice of a new generation in politics, William Denis is driven by the will to participate in creating a proud and prosperous Quebec. Originally from Saint-Ubalde in Portneuf County, he grew up on a dairy farm where he developed a strong sense of duty and rigor.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Claudiu Bell

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Jesse Robitaille

    Jesse Robitaille

    Arrived in Quebec in 2017, Jesse quickly chose to become involved in his community through his work and commitment. After working in the kitchen, he continued his career as a paramedic, a profession that allows him to serve others daily. At only 27 years old, he decided to enter politics with the determination to contribute meaningfully to citizens' well-being and give back to the community that welcomed him. Thanks to his field experience, Jesse understands the realities faced by families, workers and people dealing with a healthcare system under pressure. His journey has allowed him to develop a strong sense of responsibility, listening and composure—qualities essential to effectively represent the citizens of Jean-Talon and defend their concerns at the National Assembly. Jesse wishes to work toward improving access to healthcare by encouraging greater private sector participation to reduce wait times for surgeries, emergency services and specialist consultations. He also wants to help restore purchasing power to families by alleviating the tax and regulatory burden on taxpayers and entrepreneurs, while reducing barriers to housing construction to facilitate property ownership for young people and families.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Julie White

    Julie White

    A native of Quebec City, Julie White is a renowned manager and an effective communicator who stands out for her thoroughness, her pragmatic approach, and her dedication. A lawyer by training, she has extensive experience in the fields of economic development and public policy. As President and CEO of Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, Julie has represented the interests of thousands of manufacturing companies and actively contributed to major policy debates in Quebec. Over the years, she has established herself as an influential voice on economic issues. She has also held several strategic positions in political offices and advised numerous organizations on their public affairs initiatives while working at a major Quebec communications firm. Her career has enabled her to develop a deep understanding of the challenges faced by Quebec entrepreneurs, workers, and families. Julie White now hopes to put her experience and energy to work for the residents of Jean-Talon, with a unifying approach focused on the realities of the people in the district.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Sonia Tchuembou

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
8.7 pts
Turnout
73.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joëlle Boutin Elected CAQ 11,105 32.5
Olivier Bolduc QS 8,117 23.8
Gabriel Coulombe PQ 6,386 18.7
Julie White QLP 4,616 13.5
Sébastien Clavet PCQ 3,541 10.4
Alexandre Dallaire Other 262 0.8
Julien Cardinal Other 93 0.3
Stéphane Pouleur Other 44 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026