Riding profile
Jean-Talon
The question
Jean-Talon: a safe seat for the PQ?
Editorial read
Jean-Talon, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 21% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pascal Paradis
Sits with PQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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PQ Incumbent 
Pascal Paradis
The former president of Avocats sans frontières Canada won the partial election in Jean-Talon in October 2023. Since entering politics, he has also been able to put forward new ideas for Quebec.
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CAQ Challenger 
William Denis
A voice of a new generation in politics, William Denis is driven by the will to participate in creating a proud and prosperous Quebec. Originally from Saint-Ubalde in Portneuf County, he grew up on a dairy farm where he developed a strong sense of duty and rigor.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger 
Julie White
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | PLQ | QS | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJean-Talon | 32.4% | 21.1% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +2.4 | 27.2% −6.1 | 8.3% +8.7 | 20.3% −5.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joëlle Boutin Elected | CAQ | 11,105 | 32.5 | — |
| Olivier Bolduc | QS | 8,117 | 23.8 | — |
| Gabriel Coulombe | PQ | 6,386 | 18.7 | — |
| Julie White | PLQ | 4,616 | 13.5 | — |
| Sébastien Clavet | PCQ | 3,541 | 10.4 | — |
| Alexandre Dallaire | Other | 262 | 0.8 | — |
| Julien Cardinal | Other | 93 | 0.3 | — |
| Stéphane Pouleur | Other | 44 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026