Second level
Uncertainty — Quebec
What the model does not yet know: seat ranges, rank probabilities and the trajectory of the projections.
Seat ranges
The number on the forecast page is the centre of a distribution, not a flat prediction. Across 50,000 simulations, the 80% interval contains the outcome eight times in ten — that is the range to quote. The 95% interval is wider and more cautious; it shows how far the model concedes the race could go.
| Party | Projection | 80% range | 95% range | 80% width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Quebecois | 59 | 45–65 | 39–68 | ±10 |
| Quebec Liberals | 33 | 30–38 | 29–45 | ±4 |
| CAQ | 17 | 12–32 | 10–39 | ±10 |
| Conservatives of Quebec | 12 | 8–14 | 7–15 | ±3 |
| Quebec Solidaire | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | ±1 |
Width — how wide the 80% range is — is the most honest single measure of a party’s uncertainty: a party whose range spans sixty seats is not projected, it is estimated.
Where each party lands
Finishing first and forming a government are two questions; finishing second is a third, and it decides the official opposition. Each bar splits a party’s simulations across those outcomes.
- Finishes first
- Finishes second
- Third or lower
Convention: on a tie at the top, both parties count as first, and that simulation counts a second place for nobody.
Projection trajectory
Each point is a full model run published that day, not a poll. The line shows how OUR read of the race moved — under incoming polls, but also under model corrections.
See the numbers as a table
| Run | Parti Quebecois | Quebec Liberals | Conservatives of Quebec | Quebec Solidaire | CAQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 56.2 | 33.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 20.2 |
| 2026-09-15 | 52.6 | 32.9 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 25.1 |
| 2026-09-14 | 55.4 | 33.4 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 21.6 |
| 2026-09-13 | 59.2 | 31.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 21.6 |
| 2026-09-12 | 58.3 | 31.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 22.8 |
| 2026-09-11 | 58.4 | 31.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 22.7 |
| 2026-09-10 | 58.3 | 31.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 22.8 |
| 2026-09-08 | 58.0 | 31.7 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 22.7 |
| 2026-09-07 | 58.0 | 31.3 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 22.9 |
| 2026-09-06 | 53.2 | 31.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 28.6 |
| 2026-09-05 | 53.7 | 31.9 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 27.5 |
| 2026-09-04 | 53.7 | 31.9 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 27.5 |
| 2026-09-03 | 53.2 | 31.6 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 28.6 |
| 2026-09-02 | 53.2 | 31.6 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 28.6 |
| 2026-09-01 | 53.2 | 31.6 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 28.6 |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.3 | 31.9 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 28.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 51.9 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 32.2 |
| 2026-08-29 | 51.9 | 30.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 32.1 |
| 2026-08-28 | 51.9 | 30.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 32.2 |
| 2026-08-27 | 67.7 | 33.3 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 14.9 |
| 2026-08-26 | 66.7 | 33.2 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 17.0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 66.7 | 33.2 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 17.0 |
| 2026-08-24 | 62.6 | 36.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 20.2 |
| 2026-08-23 | 59.3 | 37.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 12.6 |
| 2026-08-22 | 59.3 | 37.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 12.6 |
| 2026-08-21 | 59.3 | 37.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 12.6 |
| 2026-08-20 | 59.3 | 37.7 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 12.6 |
| 2026-08-18 | 59.2 | 37.7 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 12.7 |
| 2026-08-17 | 59.2 | 37.7 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 12.7 |
| 2026-08-12 | 58.8 | 38.1 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 12.7 |
| 2026-08-11 | 57.1 | 37.7 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 18.6 |
| 2026-08-05 | 58.0 | 40.2 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 15.3 |
| 2026-08-03 | 58.6 | 40.6 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 16.6 |
| 2026-07-17 | 57.9 | 40.7 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 17.0 |
| 2026-07-07 | 62.5 | 42.7 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 8.3 |
| 2026-06-30 | 62.4 | 42.3 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 7.9 |
| 2026-06-16 | 61.1 | 39.1 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 8.1 |
| 2026-06-10 | 65.5 | 40.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 9.8 |
| 2026-06-09 | 52.2 | 49.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 15.6 |
| 2026-05-26 | 55.4 | 46.4 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 14.2 |
| 2026-05-22 | 56.5 | 45.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 14.2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 56.9 | 45.2 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 14.0 |
| 2026-05-20 | 54.2 | 46.1 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 15.8 |
| 2026-05-15 | 68.1 | 42.0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| 2026-05-14 | 68.4 | 41.0 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 2026-05-13 | 67.3 | 41.7 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 68.1 | 43.9 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | 66.8 | 43.0 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-15 | 60.5 | 47.3 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-11 | 64.9 | 47.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.0 |