Second level
Uncertainty — United Kingdom
What the model does not yet know: seat ranges, rank probabilities and the trajectory of the projections.
Seat ranges
The number on the forecast page is the centre of a distribution, not a flat prediction. Across 50,000 simulations, the 80% interval contains the outcome eight times in ten — that is the range to quote. The 95% interval is wider and more cautious; it shows how far the model concedes the race could go.
| Party | Projection | 80% range | 95% range | 80% width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 225 | 210–239 | 196–241 | ±15 |
| Labour | 166 | 159–173 | 157–182 | ±7 |
| Conservative | 104 | 91–119 | 87–132 | ±14 |
| Liberal Democrat | 71 | 71–72 | 71–73 | ±1 |
| SNP | 41 | 39–43 | 38–44 | ±2 |
| Other | 13 | 13–14 | 12–14 | ±1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | ±2 |
| Green | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | ±1 |
Width — how wide the 80% range is — is the most honest single measure of a party’s uncertainty: a party whose range spans sixty seats is not projected, it is estimated.
Where each party lands
Finishing first and forming a government are two questions; finishing second is a third, and it decides the official opposition. Each bar splits a party’s simulations across those outcomes.
- Finishes first
- Finishes second
- Third or lower
Convention: on a tie at the top, both parties count as first, and that simulation counts a second place for nobody.
Projection trajectory
Each point is a full model run published that day, not a poll. The line shows how OUR read of the race moved — under incoming polls, but also under model corrections.
See the numbers as a table
| Run | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | SNP | Green | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 165.5 | 103.8 | 71.3 | 40.7 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 225.3 | 13.3 |