Second level
Uncertainty — United Kingdom
What the model does not yet know: seat ranges, rank probabilities and the trajectory of the projections.
Seat ranges
The number on the forecast page is the centre of a distribution, not a flat prediction. Across 50,000 simulations, the 80% interval contains the outcome eight times in ten — that is the range to quote. The 95% interval is wider and more cautious; it shows how far the model concedes the race could go.
| Party | Projection | 80% range | 95% range | 80% width |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 297 | 232–353 | 209–371 | ±61 |
| Conservative | 128 | 93–157 | 77–174 | ±32 |
| Reform UK | 75 | 39–135 | 27–162 | ±48 |
| Liberal Democrat | 71 | 70–74 | 69–77 | ±2 |
| SNP | 42 | 29–45 | 25–45 | ±8 |
| Other | 9 | 9–11 | 8–13 | ±1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 8 | 6–9 | 6–11 | ±2 |
| Sinn Féin | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | ±1 |
| DUP | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | ±1 |
| Green | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | ±1 |
| SDLP | 2 | 2–2 | 2–2 | ±0 |
| Alliance | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | ±1 |
| UUP | 1 | 1–1 | 1–2 | ±0 |
Width — how wide the 80% range is — is the most honest single measure of a party’s uncertainty: a party whose range spans sixty seats is not projected, it is estimated.
Where each party lands
Finishing first and forming a government are two questions; finishing second is a third, and it decides the official opposition. Each bar splits a party’s simulations across those outcomes.
- Finishes first
- Finishes second
- Third or lower
Convention: on a tie at the top, both parties count as first, and that simulation counts a second place for nobody.
Projection trajectory
Each point is a full model run published that day, not a poll. The line shows how OUR read of the race moved — under incoming polls, but also under model corrections.
See the numbers as a table
| Run | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrat | SNP | Green | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2, 2026 | 293.4 | 124.8 | 71.8 | 38.4 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 83.7 | 9.6 |