U.K. General Election
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-07-17
Reform leads the old race. Burnham just started a new one.
545 polls · 10,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Current House of Commons Composition
Seats — 650 total
- Labour 410
- Conservative 122
- Liberal Democrat 72
- SNP 8
- Other 8
- Green 5
- Plaid Cymru 4
- Reform UK 4
- Vacant 1
Seat projection
Reform UK - Vote
- 24.5%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 100%
Labour - Vote
- 20.5%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Conservative - Vote
- 20.5%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Liberal Democrat - Vote
- 11.4%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
SNP - Vote
- 2.8%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
- Vote
- 4.6%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Green - Vote
- 13.7%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Plaid Cymru - Vote
- 1.9%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
The race question
Can Andy Burnham rebuild Labour before Reform converts protest into seats?
The change of Labour leader resets the political story, not the electoral arithmetic. Any “Burnham bounce” must persist in several polls and translate unevenly across constituencies before the model should move.
How we got here
How we got here
Labour’s 2024 landslide rested on extraordinary seat efficiency and a fragmented opposition. Reform’s rise then challenged Labour in many of the places where Burnham’s northern and communitarian profile is strongest.
On 17 July 2026 Labour formally elected Burnham leader after he received the support of 379 Labour MPs. That is a major regime change for the narrative; its constituency effect remains an empirical question.
What just changed
What just changed
17 JUL 2026
Burnham becomes Labour leader
The leadership change can affect party image, issue ownership and which Labour–Reform contests look competitive. Clacton itself remains primarily a test of Reform’s organization and Farage’s hold, so the effect there is likely indirect.
Our read: Editorial regime change. Wait for post-change polling before reweighting the projection.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- The size and durability of Labour’s post-leadership polling movement.
- Whether gains occur in Labour–Reform contests rather than only against Conservatives or Greens.
- Burnham’s first cabinet, fiscal choices and capacity to turn regional appeal into a national coalition.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 650 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | England | Other | 0.0% | 59.1% | 100% | New |
| Brighton Pavilion | England | Green | 0.0% | 44.7% | 100% | New |
| Orkney and Shetland | Scotland | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 43.8% | 100% | New |
| Bristol Central | England | Green | 0.0% | 39.4% | 100% | New |
| Ashfield | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 35.6% | 100% | New |
| West Tyrone | Northern Ireland | uk_sf | 0.0% | 35.6% | 100% | New |
| Twickenham | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 34.5% | 100% | New |
| North East Fife | Scotland | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 33.5% | 100% | New |
| Newry and Armagh | Northern Ireland | uk_sf | 0.0% | 32.8% | 100% | New |
| Mid Ulster | Northern Ireland | uk_sf | 0.0% | 32.4% | 100% | New |
| Edinburgh West | Scotland | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 32.4% | 100% | New |
| Belfast West | Northern Ireland | uk_sf | 0.0% | 32.0% | 100% | New |
| Kingston and Surbiton | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 28.8% | 100% | New |
| St Albans | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 28.7% | 100% | New |
| Harrow East | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 28.4% | 100% | New |
| Richmond Park | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 28.3% | 100% | New |
| Clacton | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 28.2% | 100% | New |
| Belfast South and Mid Down | Northern Ireland | uk_sdlp | 0.0% | 28.1% | 100% | New |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 27.7% | 100% | New |
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Wales | Plaid Cymru | 0.0% | 26.7% | 100% | New |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Scotland | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 26.2% | 100% | New |
| Clapham and Brixton Hill | England | Labour | 0.0% | 26.0% | 100% | New |
| Oxford West and Abingdon | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 25.9% | 100% | New |
| Croydon West | England | Labour | 0.0% | 25.8% | 100% | New |
| Ceredigion Preseli | Wales | Plaid Cymru | 0.0% | 24.2% | 100% | New |
| Tooting | England | Labour | 0.0% | 24.0% | 100% | New |
| Hammersmith and Chiswick | England | Labour | 0.0% | 23.2% | 100% | New |
| Great Yarmouth | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 23.1% | 100% | New |
| Liverpool West Derby | England | Labour | 0.0% | 23.0% | 100% | New |
| Mitcham and Morden | England | Labour | 0.0% | 22.6% | 100% | New |
| Brent East | England | Labour | 0.0% | 22.5% | 100% | New |
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 22.2% | 100% | New |
| Bootle | England | Labour | 0.0% | 22.1% | 100% | New |
| Liverpool Walton | England | Labour | 0.0% | 21.8% | 100% | New |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 21.6% | 100% | New |
| Barnsley South | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 21.3% | 100% | New |
| Wimbledon | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 20.9% | 100% | New |
| Dundee Central | Scotland | SNP | 0.0% | 20.8% | 100% | New |
| Liverpool Garston | England | Labour | 0.0% | 20.5% | 100% | New |
| South Down | Northern Ireland | uk_sf | 0.0% | 20.2% | 100% | New |
| Knowsley | England | Labour | 0.0% | 20.2% | 100% | New |
| Waveney Valley | England | Green | 0.0% | 20.1% | 100% | New |
| Boston and Skegness | England | Reform UK | 0.0% | 20.1% | 100% | New |
| Esher and Walton | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 20.0% | 100% | New |
| Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 20.0% | 100% | New |
| Ealing Southall | England | Labour | 0.0% | 19.8% | 100% | New |
| Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | England | Conservative | 0.0% | 19.6% | 100% | New |
| Lewes | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 19.4% | 100% | New |
| Winchester | England | Liberal Democrat | 0.0% | 19.3% | 100% | New |
| Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | England | Labour | 0.0% | 18.9% | 100% | New |