U.K. General Election

VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS

Latest run: 2026-09-16 606 polls aggregated 50,000 simulations

Model Harfang des neiges uk_2029

RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-09-16

Reform leads the old race. Burnham just started a new one.

227Reform UK · seats

100%Reform UK · finishes first

164Labour · seats

92%Farage in Clacton · market →

606 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

Current House of Commons Composition

Seats — 650 total

409

122

326 seats for a majority

Labour 409
Conservative 122
Liberal Democrat 72
SNP 8
Other 8
Green 5
Reform UK 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Vacant 1

Seat projection

227

164

104

326 seats for a majority

Reform UK

227

Vote: 23.5%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 100%

Labour

164

Vote: 25.5%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

Conservative

104

Vote: 20.3%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

Liberal Democrat

Vote: 11.0%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

SNP

Vote: 2.6%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

Other

Vote: 5.7%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

Plaid Cymru

Vote: 1.1%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

Green

Vote: 10.5%
P(majority): 0%
P(largest): 0%

Analysis

Vote intention

Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.

Scenario probabilities

Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Riding map

Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.

All ridings

Sort and filter the 650 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.

Close races only650 / 650 ridings

Detailed projection by electoral district
Riding	Prov.	Projection	Vote%	Margin	P(win)	vs 2024
Birmingham Yardley	England	Other	0.0%	0.4%	52%	New
Birmingham Erdington	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.5%	60%	New
Derby North	England	Labour	0.0%	0.5%	62%	New
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.5%	62%	New
Broxtowe	England	Labour	0.0%	0.5%	66%	New
Bristol South	England	Green	0.0%	0.5%	64%	New
Hitchin	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.5%	62%	New
Colne Valley	England	Labour	0.0%	0.5%	91%	New
Newton Abbot	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.6%	78%	New
Gainsborough	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	55%	New
Romford	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.6%	56%	New
Isle of Wight West	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.6%	56%	New
Dartford	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	60%	New
Poole	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	60%	New
Portsmouth North	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	60%	New
South West Wiltshire	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	61%	New
Christchurch	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	61%	New
Bracknell	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	62%	New
Bournemouth East	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	65%	New
West Bromwich	England	Labour	0.0%	0.6%	89%	New
South Shropshire	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.6%	63%	New
Forest of Dean	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	64%	New
Chesterfield	England	Labour	0.0%	0.6%	89%	New
East Renfrewshire	Scotland	SNP	0.0%	0.6%	60%	New
Milton Keynes North	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.6%	53%	New
Old Bexley and Sidcup	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.6%	69%	New
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Scotland	SNP	0.0%	0.7%	78%	New
Wycombe	England	Labour	0.0%	0.7%	73%	New
Kensington and Bayswater	England	Labour	0.0%	0.7%	75%	New
Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland	Conservative	0.0%	0.7%	83%	New
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Wales	Reform UK	0.0%	0.7%	55%	New
Mid Bedfordshire	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.8%	81%	New
East Worthing and Shoreham	England	Labour	0.0%	0.8%	100%	New
Shrewsbury	England	Labour	0.0%	0.8%	100%	New
North East Hertfordshire	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.8%	81%	New
Witham	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.8%	82%	New
Wakefield and Rothwell	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.8%	89%	New
Worcester	England	Labour	0.0%	0.8%	100%	New
Swindon South	England	Labour	0.0%	0.8%	100%	New
Southampton Itchen	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.8%	90%	New
Maidstone and Malling	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.9%	85%	New
Herne Bay and Sandwich	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.9%	85%	New
Mid Leicestershire	England	Conservative	0.0%	0.9%	88%	New
Beverley and Holderness	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.9%	86%	New
North East Cambridgeshire	England	Reform UK	0.0%	0.9%	86%	New
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	Scotland	Conservative	0.0%	0.9%	91%	New
Makerfield	England	Labour	0.0%	0.9%	99%	New
Cardiff East	Wales	Labour	0.0%	0.9%	57%	New
City of Durham	England	Reform UK	0.0%	1.0%	92%	New
North East Derbyshire	England	Reform UK	0.0%	1.0%	91%	New

The race question

Can Prime Minister Andy Burnham rebuild Labour before Reform converts protest into seats?

The change of prime minister resets the political story, not the electoral arithmetic. Any “Burnham bounce” must persist across several polls and translate unevenly across constituencies before the model should move.

How we got here

Labour’s 2024 landslide rested on extraordinary seat efficiency and a fragmented opposition. Reform’s rise then challenged Labour in many of the places where Burnham’s northern and communitarian profile is strongest.

Labour elected Burnham leader on 16 July 2026; he became prime minister on 20 July and formed a new cabinet. That is a major regime change whose constituency effect remains an empirical question.

What just changed

20 JUL 2026

Burnham forms a new government

John Healey moved to the Treasury, Wes Streeting to Defence, Angela Rayner returned to Housing and Miatta Fahnbulleh took Energy. The reset can affect Labour–Reform contests, but Clacton remains chiefly a test of Reform’s organization and Farage’s hold.

Our read: Wait for several post-transition polls before treating any bounce as durable.

GOV.UK →

What can still change the race

The size and durability of Labour’s post-transition polling movement.
Whether gains occur in Labour–Reform contests rather than only against Conservatives or Greens.
The cabinet’s fiscal choices and capacity to turn Burnham’s regional appeal into a national coalition.