Riding profile
Southend West and Leigh
The question
Southend West and Leigh: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthend West and Leigh | 30.5% | 26.3% | 20.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.2 | 19.3% +6.9 | 21.8% −1.1 | 10.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Southend West and Leigh, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Burton-Sampson
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Burton-Sampson Elected | Labour | 16,739 | 35.6 | — |
| Anna Firth | Conservative | 14,790 | 31.5 | — |
| Peter Little | Reform UK | 8,273 | 17.6 | — |
| Tilly Hogrebe | Green | 3,262 | 7.0 | — |
| Stephen Cummins | Lib Dems | 3,174 | 6.8 | — |
| James Miller | Other | 262 | 0.6 | — |
| Tom Darwood | Other | 172 | 0.4 | — |
| Jason Pilley | Other | 99 | 0.2 | — |
| Lara Hurley | Other | 99 | 0.2 | — |
| Robert Francis | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029