Southend West and Leigh
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 44% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend West and Leigh | 27.2% | 27.1% | 26.6% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+0.8 | 20.0%+7.1 | 22.3%+4.3 | 9.7%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,014 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 84.8% |
Current member
David Burton-Sampson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Burton-Sampson Elected | Labour | 16,739 | 35.6 |
| Anna Firth | Conservative | 14,790 | 31.5 |
| Peter Little | Reform UK | 8,273 | 17.6 |
| Tilly Hogrebe | Green | 3,262 | 7.0 |
| Stephen Cummins | Lib Dems | 3,174 | 6.8 |
| James Miller | Other | 262 | 0.6 |
| Tom Darwood | Other | 172 | 0.4 |
| Jason Pilley | Other | 99 | 0.2 |
| Lara Hurley | Other | 99 | 0.2 |
| Robert Francis | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Maldon Conservative, toss-up
- Rayleigh and Wickford Reform UK, toss-up
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, toss-up
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated