Riding profile
Southend West and Leigh
The question
Southend West and Leigh: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Southend West and Leigh, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Burton-Sampson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthend West and Leigh | 29.1% | 26.1% | 21.8% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.7 | 18.9% +7.2 | 21.7% +0.2 | 11.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Burton-Sampson Elected | Labour | 16,739 | 35.6 | — |
| Anna Firth | Conservative | 14,790 | 31.5 | — |
| Peter Little | Reform UK | 8,273 | 17.6 | — |
| Tilly Hogrebe | Green | 3,262 | 7.0 | — |
| Stephen Cummins | Lib Dems | 3,174 | 6.8 | — |
| James Miller | Other | 262 | 0.6 | — |
| Tom Darwood | Other | 172 | 0.4 | — |
| Jason Pilley | Other | 99 | 0.2 | — |
| Lara Hurley | Other | 99 | 0.2 | — |
| Robert Francis | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029