Riding profile

Rayleigh and Wickford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Rayleigh and Wickford: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 37.2%
  • Conservative 29.1%
  • Labour 13.8%
  • Lib Dems 10.6%
  • Green 8.0%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereRayleigh and Wickford 37.2%29.1%13.8%10.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.9 19.3% +9.8 21.8% −8.0 11.4% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rayleigh and Wickford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Mark Francois

Sits with Conservative

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Francois Elected Conservative 17,756 37.0 —
Grant Randall Reform UK 12,135 25.3 —
James Hedges Labour 11,823 24.6 —
Stewart Mott Lib Dems 4,068 8.5 —
Chris Taylor Green 2,196 4.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,654
Median age
45
Employment rate
88.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029