Riding profile
Rayleigh and Wickford
The question
Rayleigh and Wickford: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Rayleigh and Wickford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Mark Francois
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRayleigh and Wickford | 36.8% | 29.6% | 13.0% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.5 | 18.9% +10.7 | 21.7% −8.7 | 11.6% −1.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Francois Elected | Conservative | 17,756 | 37.0 | — |
| Grant Randall | Reform UK | 12,135 | 25.3 | — |
| James Hedges | Labour | 11,823 | 24.6 | — |
| Stewart Mott | Lib Dems | 4,068 | 8.5 | — |
| Chris Taylor | Green | 2,196 | 4.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029