Riding profile
Chelmsford
The question
Chelmsford: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChelmsford | 36.4% | 24.6% | 23.5% | 6.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +25.1 | 25.4% −0.7 | 19.3% +4.2 | 21.8% −15.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Chelmsford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marie Goldman
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Goldman Elected | Lib Dems | 20,214 | 39.9 | — |
| Vicky Ford | Conservative | 15,461 | 30.5 | — |
| Darren Ingrouille | Reform UK | 6,754 | 13.3 | — |
| Richard Parry | Labour | 6,108 | 12.0 | — |
| Reza Hossain | Green | 1,588 | 3.1 | — |
| Richard Hyland | Other | 230 | 0.5 | — |
| Mark Lawrence | Other | 187 | 0.4 | — |
| Mark Kenlen | Other | 105 | 0.2 | — |
| Kamla Sangha | Other | 69 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029