Riding profile

Chelmsford

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Chelmsford: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Chelmsford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marie Goldman

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 31.9%
  • Conservative 24.9%
  • Reform UK 23.7%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • Green 7.1%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereChelmsford 31.9%24.9%23.7%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +20.2 18.9% +6.0 25.3% −1.7 21.7% −11.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
9.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie Goldman Elected Lib Dems 20,214 39.9
Vicky Ford Conservative 15,461 30.5
Darren Ingrouille Reform UK 6,754 13.3
Richard Parry Labour 6,108 12.0
Reza Hossain Green 1,588 3.1
Richard Hyland Other 230 0.5
Mark Lawrence Other 187 0.4
Mark Kenlen Other 105 0.2
Kamla Sangha Other 69 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,155
Median age
39
Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029