Riding profile

Witham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Witham: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.9%
  • Conservative 30.0%
  • Labour 15.1%
  • Green 10.1%
  • Lib Dems 8.3%
  • Other 4.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereWitham 31.9%30.0%15.1%10.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.6 19.3% +10.7 21.8% −6.7 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Witham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Priti Patel

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Priti Patel Elected Conservative 18,827 37.2 —
Rumi Chowdhury Labour 13,682 27.0 —
Timothy Blaxill Reform UK 9,870 19.5 —
James Abbott Green 3,539 7.0 —
Ashley Thompson Lib Dems 3,439 6.8 —
Chelsey Jay Other 1,246 2.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,321
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029