Riding profile

Witham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Witham: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Witham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Priti Patel

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
57%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.9%
  • Reform UK 30.9%
  • Labour 15.5%
  • Green 11.5%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Other 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereWitham 30.9%30.9%15.5%11.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +12.0 25.3% +5.5 21.7% −6.2 11.8% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Priti Patel Elected Conservative 18,827 37.2
Rumi Chowdhury Labour 13,682 27.0
Timothy Blaxill Reform UK 9,870 19.5
James Abbott Green 3,539 7.0
Ashley Thompson Lib Dems 3,439 6.8
Chelsey Jay Other 1,246 2.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,321
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029