Riding profile
Harwich and North Essex
The question
Harwich and North Essex: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Harwich and North Essex, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Bernard Jenkin
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarwich and North Essex | 32.4% | 28.5% | 19.8% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.0 | 18.9% +9.6 | 21.7% −1.9 | 11.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Jenkin Elected | Conservative | 16,522 | 34.4 | — |
| Alex Diner | Labour | 15,360 | 32.0 | — |
| Mark Cole | Reform UK | 9,806 | 20.4 | — |
| Natalie Sommers | Lib Dems | 3,561 | 7.4 | — |
| Andrew Canessa | Green | 2,794 | 5.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029