Riding profile
Harwich and North Essex
The question
Harwich and North Essex: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarwich and North Essex | 33.2% | 27.9% | 18.8% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.8 | 19.3% +8.5 | 21.8% −3.0 | 10.8% −1.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Harwich and North Essex, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Bernard Jenkin
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Jenkin Elected | Conservative | 16,522 | 34.4 | — |
| Alex Diner | Labour | 15,360 | 32.0 | — |
| Mark Cole | Reform UK | 9,806 | 20.4 | — |
| Natalie Sommers | Lib Dems | 3,561 | 7.4 | — |
| Andrew Canessa | Green | 2,794 | 5.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029