Riding profile

Colchester

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Colchester: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.7%
  • Labour 24.7%
  • Conservative 19.3%
  • Lib Dems 15.3%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereColchester 27.7%24.7%19.3%15.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.3 21.8% +2.9 19.3% 11.4% +4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Colchester, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pam Cox

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pam Cox Elected Labour 18,804 41.9 —
James Cracknell Conservative 10,554 23.5 —
Terence Longstaff Reform UK 6,664 14.8 —
Martin Goss Lib Dems 6,393 14.2 —
Sara Ruth Green 2,414 5.4 —
James Rolfe Other 74 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
115,314
Median age
36
Employment rate
78.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029