Riding profile

Ipswich

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Ipswich: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.5%
  • Labour 26.4%
  • Conservative 21.9%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 7.1%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereIpswich 29.5%26.4%21.9%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.1 21.8% +4.6 19.3% +2.6 10.8% +1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ipswich, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jack Abbott

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jack Abbott Elected Labour 19,099 43.3 —
Thomas Hunt Conservative 11,696 26.5 —
Tony Love Reform UK 7,027 15.9 —
Adria Pittock Green 3,652 8.3 —
James Sandbach Lib Dems 2,241 5.1 —
Freddie Sofar Other 205 0.5 —
Terence Charles Other 151 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,348
Median age
38
Employment rate
74.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029